Week 10 NFL Picks

Week 10 - In the league where they play for pay...

Dallas @ New York Giants

We'll throw away the Week 1 meeting when New York allowed 45 points against the Cowboys. The Giants defense was a completely different unit on September 9th. What we won't be throwing away is the fact that the Giants defense, for as long I have watched football, have never shown up once in a big game. They always look great on paper, they'll bully their way through the easy part of the schedule, but when the chips are down, Strahan and company almost never show up when it matters. This Week 10 matchup between Dallas and New York is almost a must-win for the Giants. You may say: Hold on, the Giants are 6-2 and they play in the NFC. Fair point, but remember the Giants under coach Tom Coughlin are notorious for second half collapses, would be all but out of the divisional race with a loss on Sunday, and would prove that the real reason they have 6 wins to this point in the season is because they played bad teams. SO yes, this a big game an I'll have to pick against the Giants defense until they prove to me they can pony up when the chips are down. If the G-Men win against Dallas, then it's reasonable to believe they have a shot at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.

KEY MATCHUP #1 - The Giants secondary didn't all of a sudden get good. Their extraordinary pass rush has made those NY defensive backs look a lot better than they are. Now I love rookie Aaron Ross but I've seen him get smoked on more than occasion this year and I noted it in once in my weekly observations. Sam Madison was an elite cornerback in 2001, but we're more than 6 years removed from his prime, when he was teamed up with Patrick Surtain in the Dolphins secondary. Will the Giants secondary have an answer for Terrell Owens (2 TDs Week 1 vs Giants) and Jason Witten (116 yards, 1TD, 19.3 avg in Week 1) ? Also remember that QB Tony "No Homo" Romo loves to extend plays with his feet and actually has better numbers throwing when out of the pocket. Who in the Giants secondary can stick with Owens when the play lasts an extra 3 or 4 seconds?

KEY MATCHUP #2 - Terrence Newman vs Plaxico Burress - Terry didn't play in the week 1 meeting. Plax had 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. Newman is a pro-bowl corner, Plaxico is an elite wide out. Burress's ankle injury might be catching up with him. His last 2 games: 43 yards and 14 yards repspectively with 0 TDs. I still think Burress will have a good game, just not another virtuoso performance.

The Pick - I realize I gave the Giants very little credit for their 6-2 record. The Giants have a great chance of winning this game at home. Both teams are very good offensively and the Giants probably have a slight advantage on defense. But the reason I'm picking against New York is because of their defensive history of coming up short when it matters. Until they prove otherwise, I have to choose against them when they're playing for all the mustard. Look at it this way Giants fans - You're not going to bet against Lucy pulling the ball away from Charlie Brown, right? And can you trust Tynes to kick a crucial field goal? (Cowboys -1.5)

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

This game comes down to quarterback play. I'm going to pick against the team with the QB that has thrown for 3 TD, 8 INT, and just a 61.5 rating. Those are Vince Young's stats, NOT Quinn Gray's, and David Garrard (100+ Passer Rating in 2007) is scheduled to start against the Titans. So instead of us continuing to use the same cliche Vince Young Wins Games, how about we change it to The Titans defense wins games, until further notice. Jacksonville also plays much better on the road (3-1 away), really needs this game (6-3 looks a lot better than 5-4), and is getting a healthy 4 points. (Jaguars +4)

Atlanta @ Carolina

Falcons on the road in 2007: 0-4
Panthers at home in 2007: 0-3

What gives?

If Carolina didn't already have Quarterback problems with Jake Delhomme out for the season and David Carr and Vinny Testaverde vying for the starting QB role, their problems get even worse in Week 10. Carr suffered a concussion last week and his status in uncertain. Testaverde has been battling an Achilles injury all week and his status is also in doubt. Un-drafted rookie Matt Moore could get his first NFL start Sunday against the Falcons. Will Moore have some magic? He's an Oregon State alum, the same University that Derek Anderson played for. I'll still take the points. (Falcons +4)

New York Jets @ BYE

After that tough overtime loss to the Redskins in Week 9, the Jets may be a little deflated and in shutdown mode at 1-8. Still, they're playing a team that always seems like its taking a week off. (Jets +1)

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

I think Cincy stinks, but what I saw from the Baltimore offense on Monday Night Football was frightening to watch. Not only could Steve McNair not perform the most requisite of tasks as a QB, holding the football in his hands without dropping it on the floor, but he actually refused to throw the ball more than 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. Ron Jaworski and Tony Kornheiser were openly suggesting that Steve McNair is finished as an NFL player. Now, things should get better for the Ravens offense at Baltimore; if you heard Ray Lewis after the MNF game he said this 58 times. Plus, the Bengals defense is about as imposing as Zach Randolph and Eddie Curry defending the post. But this is an inter-divisional rivalry game and you would think that Marvin Lewis, playing against his former team, with possibly his job hanging in the balance, would be able to inspire his team for at least this game. Remember, Baltimore played without its two starting corners against Pittsburgh and their backups got destroyed. Samari Rolle will miss Sunday's game again and Chris McCallister is still banged up. The rest of the Raven's injury report reads longer than Ulysses. (Bengals +4)

Chicago @ Oakaland

One of the things I had to come to grips with last week was that the Raiders aren't good (at all) and that the "Black Hole" really doesn't mean anything in 2007 (Raiders 1-3 home, 1-3 road). Though it doesn't look like its going to be a year in which the Bears really earn many victories, you'd hope the Chicago defense has enough pride to just show up on Sunday against Oakland. If they show up, that should be enough to stop Josh McCown and an Oakland offense that was embarrassed by the Texans last week. The other thing to remember about this game: Chicago is an NFC team and at 3-5 they probably think there's still a glimmer of hope for a playoff birth. The only thing the Raiders are thinking about is when to start JaMarcus Russell. (Bears -3.5)

Indianapolis @ San Diego

Did you hear LaDainian Tomlinson's comments this week? That Chargers team is a mess right now.

I'll give you Chris "Mad Dog" Russo's analysis of this game, since I think he hit the nail right on the head. He said he'd rather have the question marks surrounding Indy in Week 10, as to whether or not they'll come out flat, after flying cross country and playing a war against the Pats than have the Chargers' question marks about whether or not they're even a good team.

I think both sets of question marks are a factor, PLUS this is a must-win game for Chargers from an AFC playoff perspective. With injuries to Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez, and Marvin Harrison, I'd ordinarily concede this game to the Chargers outright. But San Diego is really banged up on their defensive front. So the Colts should still win but it will be really tight, as San Diego fights for its post-season life. (Chargers +3.5)

Buffalo @ Miami

Is it possible for a 4-4 team to be looking ahead? Reasons why Buffalo may lose to Miami:

1. Next week, Buffalo has a National TV appearance against the Patriots. Knocking New England off it's high horse would make their season.

2. Miami is 0-8, nobody takes them too seriously.

3. From a statistical standpoint, the Dolphins have to win a game sometime. What are the odds they lose the AFC East by 16 games, a possibility if they go winless and the Patriots go undefeated.

4. Miami is coming off a bye week and playing at home.

Other than Buffalo being just a better team that Miami, the prospect of them climbing to over .500 (5-4) with a win against the Dolphins should be enough to keep them focused. Remember, Buffalo has remained extraordinarily competitive despite suffering countless injuries on defense. It would be entirely unfair for me to question the Bills' will after what they've come back from this season, both with the injury to Kevin Everett and the aforementioned injuries to their defensive unit. (Bills -2.5)

Detroit @ Arizona

I was definitely intrigued that the Cardinals are the favorites in this game considering they're 3-5. I guess history was Vegas' reasoning here. Detroit (6-2), has not won four in a row since 1999. They haven't started 7-2 since 1993. I know Arizona has been competitive but they're still not very good. And Kurt Warner posted a 26.0 QB rating in week 9. Since his MVP years with the Rams and Arena League days with the Iowa Barnstormers, Warner always seems to have a precipitous drop in play after starting the season with the hot hand. I've grown all-too familiar with the sight of Warner ripping his chin strap off after throwing an interception, which is subsequently followed by his wife calling into the local sports talk radio station to defend him. (Lions +1)

Quick Picks...

Vikinings @ Green Bay - The Green Bay rush defense is good enough to keep Adrian Peterson from breaking another record AND there's not a QB on the Viking's roster that could handle Lambeau Field as the weather changes. But will Vikings QB and University of Wisconsin Alum, Brooks Bollinger get a hero's welcome? (Packers -6)

Denver @ Kansas City - The Denver run defense is terrible, so it shouldn't be too much of a surprise if the Scientologist, Priest "Katie" Holmes has a respectable game on the ground for KC, in lieu of Larry Johnson's foot injury. And you know how much I love Arrow Head... (Chiefs -3)

St Louis @ New Orleans - Leonard "Officer I only drank a" Little is out for the season; Not that I thought Little would be the deciding factor in this game, I just wanted to reiterate how much this killed my DWI fantasy team. New Orleans is the NFL's hottest offense, they're playing in the Super Dome and can smell the playoffs after an 0-4 start. I don't think they'll let a winless Rams team get in their way. (Saints -11)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - Like I said in my Monday Night notes this week, the Ravens game was not a good barometer for determining how good Pittsburgh is, though I think they're the third best team in the AFC. With that said, a 9.5 point spread in an inter-divisional, bitter rivalry game, against a hot 5-3 team nonetheless, is too much. (Browns +9.5)

Philadelphia @ Washington - I don't know what to say. Philly looked horrendous against Dallas last week and Washington barely won in overtime against the Jets. Hmmmmm, 'Skins are 3-1 at home and Clinton Portis found his MoJo in Week 9 (196 yards). (Redskins -2.5)

San Francisco @ Seattle (Monday Night Football) - Both teams have been extremely disappointing. Ten points is ordinarily a lot for a divisional game, but at QWEST Field (Seattle 3-1 at home), I don't see the 49ers having much of a chance after dropping 6 straight. (Seattle -10)

Last Week (9-2-1) - Season Total (65-52-10)