NFL Week 13 Picks

Week 13 - In the league where they play for pay...

Atlanta @ St. Louis

How do you explain the fact that the Falcons play better on the road than at home?

Because they're like a kid that comes from a family in which they get no attention - the reason being is that their troubled sibling (Michael Vick) has worn down the parents (fan base) so much with his pesonal demons that there is just no possible way for them to muster any real emotion towards the rest of the children. It's just a lethargic, going through the motions type of parenting, or fan support.

A kid that gets no attention at home is just dying for some recognition, even if it's negative (i.e. reprimanded by teacher, abusive boyfriend, trouble with law), so they can 1) satiate their basic human desire of being noticed AND 2) somehow get their family to pay attention to them again. So as a result, the Falcons play better in a hostile environment, where they're actually getting some kind of attention, than they do at home where their fans are thinking about their embattled, now estranged family member instead of the one that really deserves and needs the support.

Key Stat to back up this claim: The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games, thanks Bodog.com! (Falcons +3.5)

Buffalo @ Washington

Not only will the Sean Taylor loss be potentially devastating emotionally, but he's also a huge personnel loss. Even if the Taylor passing ends up being a unifying force, the 'Skins and their already suspect coaching staff had to of had their attention elsewhere all week. (Bills +6)

Detroit @ Minnesota

I know Detroit is the midst of free falling from a cliff, but going against the league's worst passing defense on an artificial surface should allow them to momentarily grab onto a branch as they plummet out of playoff contention. (Lions +4)

Houston @ Tennessee

We're finding out in both the NBA and NFL that the way to win an MVP award is by missing games and watching your team suffer in your absence. It worked for Steve Nash and it may work for Albert Haynesworth, who has also proved that you can make people forget that you once stomped on a defenseless opponent's skull if you can play spectacular run defense. (Texans +4)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Jacksonville needs this game to show they've truly made the leap from a fun pick to legitimate AFC contender. If David Garrard can pull this one off and maintain his zero interception total for the year, then it's time to at least start discussing him as a top-6 quarterback. (Jags +7)

New York Jets @ Miami

If the Jets were able to beat the Steelers off their bye week, then I hope they can defeat the winless Dolphins off an extended week of preparation. (Jets +1)

San Diego @ Kansas City

At this point, I really have no idea which Chargers team will show up. When all else fails, take the points, especially at Arrow Head. (Chiefs +6.5)

Seattle @ Philadelphia

Shaun Alexander is back in the Seahawks lineup.

Donovan McNabb is starting again for the Eagles.

I know the 'Hawks are better with Maurice Morris and I don't think Alexander will try to disprove his critics that say he doesn't run the ball hard. I'm not sure if the Eagles are better with McNabb over AJ Feeley but at least I know he'll try like hell to prove he is. He just can't make any mistakes early or that Philly crowd will turn on him. He's almost better playing this game on the road. (Eagles -3)

San Francisco @ Carolina

Two weeks ago, I was convinced the the 49ers were the worst team in the NFL. But Carolina is physically unable to win a home game and are even worse off at the QB position then the 'Niners - if that's even possible. (49ers +3)

Cleveland @ Arizona

Bill Simmons pondered on his podcast whether or not there is a quarterback who has made more disastrous 4th quarter mistakes in the last 5 years than Kurt Warner. I think Warner's problems stem from when he played in that historic St. Louis Rams offense - an offense that was also reckless with timeouts, play calling, and turnovers - and he just developed bad habits that he has been unable to shake. He's also become the best in league history at ripping his chin strap off in disgust after a devastating fumble or interception. (Browns -1)

Denver @ Oakland

PASTE obligatory Devin Hester not being on the Raiders joke here. (Denver -3.5)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Wait, you mean the Bucs are getting 3.5 points against a 5-6 team ? (Buccaneers +3.5)

New York Giants @ Chicago

A few trains of thought here:

1. Chicago won't be able to generate enough points with the likelihood being that Devin Hester won't have another repeat 2-Special Teams TD performance. Then again, the Bears could have great field position all day if the Giants repeatedly kick the ball out of bounds.
   
   
2. You can't like Eli Manning going to Soldier Field in December, especially off his Week 12 disaster.
   
   
3. But... I guess you have to take Eli Manning over Rex Grossman.

(Giants -2)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

I don't think the Bengals are going to run the table and make the playoffs BUT I do think they like Stella, are also in the process of getting their groove back. And in rivalry games, I usually think its best to throw records and point spreads out the window. (Bengals +7)

New England @ Baltimore

Another huge point spread, but unlike the Eagles - I don't think the Ravens will be able to score more than 10 points. And we know the Pats are definitely good for 30+. (Patriots -21)

Last Week (3-13) - Season Total (90-73-10)

NFL Thursday Night Pick

Week 13 - In the game that only those with the NFL Network will see....

Green Bay @ Dallas

With the line for this game set at a healthy 7 points, choosing Green Bay +7 does not make a definitive statement as to whether or not you think the Packers are as good at the Cowboys. You could easily rationalize the pick by saying that betting against Favre, especially by a a full touchdown plus PAT, is just too risky.

I on the other hand will make a definitive statement about the Packers, though there is a very realistic chance that at 10 o'clock tonight I'll be eating crow with humble pie for dessert.

The Packers are just as good as the Cowboys. - Zach Napolitano 11/29/2007 5:06pm

Dallas has a marginally better offense because of an explosive run game behind Barber III and Jones. The Packers have a slightly better defense than Dallas, in that their secondary doesn't have a tendency to give up big plays. And Green Bay, especially this time of year, has the best home field advantage in professional sports - though that obviously does not apply to tonight's game.

Math Lesson

When teams are evenly matched the home team is usually favored by 3 points. I believe Dallas is ever so slightly better than Green Bay, meaning I think the Cowboys should be favored over the Packers by one point if they were to meet on a neutral field. That means that in a vacuum I think Dallas should be 4 points better than Green Bay tonight. But since the game isn't played in a vacuum that means Charles Woodson and KGB, two essential pieces of the Packer defense, may not play due to injury or at the very least will not be 100%. That's why the line is at a full 7 points. Now when I factor in Favre's illustrious history of Monday Night heroics, which was punctuated this season with his game winning bomb against the Broncos - I can say with confidence that will earn the Packers a few extra points when playing in a Thursday Night spotlight game. Then when I consider Romo's meltdown against the Bills on the Sunday Night Football, I think he threw 5 interceptions, that also moves a few more beads on the abacus in the Packers favor.

Finally, I add one more pebble on the scale in favor of the Cowboys because of Favre's terrible history of playing at Texas Stadium. It's only one pebble because the bulk of those games were played against the Cowboys dynasty teams in the mid-1990s AND because Favre has recently slayed his other stadium dragons at Minnesota and Detroit.

My conclusion is that the Cowboys will be, at most, 5 points better than the Packers tonight. (Packers +7)

The rest of my Week 13 NFL Picks tomorrow...

znapolitano@gmail.com

The Top-10 NBA Players

After watching way too much early season NBA basketball, I think I can now successfully march out a Top-10 players list. The main criteria I will be using is - Which single player in 2007 would give a roster the best chance of winning an NBA Championship? So my apologies to Dwight Howard, who is easily a Top-20 player and whose upside will undoubtebly land him in the Top-5 in the near future - This is a list of the Top-10 NBA players RIGHT NOW. A quick sidenote - In my opinion there is a clear cut 7 best players in the NBA, with players 8,9, and 10 can easily be interchanged with about a half dozen or so players from the TOP-20.

Before I go into the list, allow me to expound on the very first sentence of this column - "After watching way too much early season NBA basketball." For those of you who do not own the NBA League Pass, and only watch the NBA when televised nationally on ABC, ESPN or TNT, you may not fully understand how poorly played a game can be when players know there is only going to be a local audience watching. Before I had the League Pass I never understood why fans or columnists would say that NBA players "mail" games in. But after a full 2006-2007 season with the League Pass, which is great for gambling purposes, I can easily say I've seen some of the ugliest, most un-inspired games ever played. Players are lucky that only highlights are shown on SportsCenter. So in short, some of these early season NBA games were almost insufferable to watch, even for a basketball junkie like myself.

The Top-10 NBA Players

1. Kobe Bryant - The most gifted offensive player since Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant is also an elite defender, which is best exhibited by his shutdown defense during the Olympic trials. When Kobe guarded T-Mac in an early Lakers-Rockets game, McGrady seemed so frightened by the possibility of being embarrassed by Bryant that he completely backed down from the challenge - choosing to act purely as a distributor until he guarded by somebody else.

I can write 10,000 words on Kobe's scoring ability and it still wouldn't be enough, so I won't go into the details about how Kobe's just an assassin, in every sense of the word, and how he night in and night out makes the most difficult of shots look routine. But I will lay out a compelling argument as to why Kobe Bryant may be better than Michael Jordan using the a Seinfeld vs. Curb Your Enthusiasm analogy - Though I myself am a firm believer that Jordan was considerably better than Kobe - but that's another column.

Kobe is a more polished player than Jordan. He's a better ball handler and a better long range shooter. Curb Your Enthusiasm is a more polished version of Seinfeld; both the individual episodes and seasons "come together" or "tie-in" better than Seinfeld ever did, the shows are more aesthetically pleasing, and the dialogue is improvised - a perfect fit for that type of comedy and somewhat revolutionary for a sitcom.

BUT, Kobe will never be considered better than Jordan, just like Curb will never be considered better than Seinfeld because:

1) Jordan was in his prime the same time the NBA was at its peak in terms of viewership, therefore many, many more people understand how great Jordan was. Similarly for Curb, Seinfeld was on a major network (NBC) during prime time, while Curb is on HBO on Sunday night.

2) Jordan was the first of his kind, he had nobody to pattern himself after, and he became the blueprint that all young basketball players modeled their game after. He completely changed basketball. Seinfeld did the same thing for television. Any current sitcom you watch today tries in some way to be like Seinfeld. With the perception that the first of its kind is always the best, even when an improved version comes along the original always gets the benefit of the doubt.

3) Hardware: Jordan has 6 championship rings, 6 Finals MVPs, and 5 NBA MVPs to go along with countless other awards. Seinfeld has won a ton of Golden Globe's, Emmies, and other accolades. I think its fair to say that both Kobe and Curb, due to various axillary circumstances, have never gotten the credit they deserve, at least from an award perspective.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Sometimes bad shot selection, often times doesn't get teammates involved, and not to mention degrading his entire team through vehenement trade requests.

2. Tim Duncan- As tempted I was to put LeBron James in this spot, with the ridiculous statistical season he's having, how could I put him over the owner of 4 rings (and counting) and greatest power forward in NBA history? Duncan's stats won't WOW you, and on some nights he'll have like 12 points and 8 rebounds. But if he wanted to average 28+ a game he could easily. He sacrifices his individual game for the greater good of his team, but will still impose his will as the most dominant post scorer in the game when the time calls for it. It's like Albert Pujols in baseball. Can he hit 50-55 home runs ever year? Sure, but Pujols hits 35-49 every year because he's not going to sacrifice his AVG, OBP, and strikeout 120+ times each year for more gaudy numbers. This guy strikes out well, well under 100 times each year, while A-Rod is usually in the 140 range and Ryan Howard is eerily close to 200. Then when you factor in that Duncan is one of the most dynamic interior defenders in the NBA, with the ability to block /alter shots, defend athletic post players, and play impeccable help defense, you undoubtedly have the 2nd best player in the NBA, with a strong case to be made for the #1.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Poor free throw shooting, occasionally mails it in during regular season games.

3. Lebron James - You could conceivably make the argument that he's better than Kobe because he's a superb passer that always gets his teammates involved - but when you consider that LeBron isn't much of defender despite being the most physically gifted specimen maybe ever, you can't give him the nod. With that said, what he's doing statistically through the early part of this season, where he's averaging 30+ points per game, with a high field goal percentage, and triple-double like numbers every night, is amazing. Still, his flaws, which will be mentioned below, are limiting him enough for the time being, from being catapulted to legendary status.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Doesn't play to his potential defensively, inconsistent jump shooting, poor foul shooter, sometimes settles for jumpers when he can drive to the hoop at any time.

4. Dwyane Wade - Wade, who is yet to make the All-NBA first team, is one player along with LeBron and Dwight Howard, that will be fending for the title of Best NBA Player in the next 5 years. Wade is also the only player, at least that I've seen, that Kobe Bryant has legitimately struggled to guard - with my evidence being the Heat vs Lakers on Christmas Day game last year. He's that fast. Wade is also a complete player, a team player, and extraordinarily potent during crunch time scorer - the one factor that could possibly launch him past LeBron James in the future, if it didn't already, meaning if you opine that his championship ring and Finals MVP gives him the edge.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Struggles every year with his health.

5. Kevin Garnett - When discussing Garnett's greatness, we will always compare him to Tim Duncan. Garnett is a better regular season player than Duncan - his overall stats are historic, though as we mentioned, Duncan's stats could be higher if he desired. Garnett and Duncan are also pretty similar defensively, you can give the nod either way, depending on who's style of play you prefer. The difference for me is scoring ability. Though Garnett is a terrific scorer and an impossible match up for almost any forward, he's not the type of player that you'd want to feed on 4 straight possessions, down the stretch, in a playoff game, with your season on the line. In other words, you wouldn't want him to be THE GUY offensively when all your chips are down. He can score 35 on any given night, but you'd rather put the ball in Paul Pierce or Ray Allen's hands on the final possession of the game. Anyway, the silver lining for Garnett is that he has a chance of launching himself into the greatest power forward of all time argument, if he wins a battle with Tim Duncan in the NBA finals. We're a long way from that, but it's something to potentially look forward to.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Sometimes plays too much like guard, sometimes too unselfish, sometimes too intense.

6. Steve Nash - A 2x time NBA Most Valuable Player, the best point guard in the game, the best passer in the game, one of the most efficient jump shooters in the NBA, the best free throw shooter in the NBA, a warrior, a leader, a heroic clutch performer, AND ARGUABLY THE WORST PERIMETER DEFENDER IN THE NBA. Last night, Don Nelson's strategy to attack Steve Nash while he was on defense semmed borderline malevolent. Baron Davis and Monta Ellis literally took Nash behind the wood and gave him a Kunta Kinte like whooping - for you Roots fans out there. The difference between Nash's defense and Stephon Marbury's defense is that Nash tries really, really hard. So when he's getting smoked off the dribble for 40 minutes a night by elite western conference point guards you kind of feel bad him - because he's fighting for his life out there. But when you elevate the play of everybody on your team to the level he does AND you play as hard as Nash does, you can get away with shabby defense.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Haircut and Defense.

7. Dirk Nowitzki - On any given night he's the most incredible player you'll ever see, and he's also the most impossible match up in the NBA. When I say most incredible player, that's not to the casual fan that is solely interested in dunks and alley oops. But when Dirk is hot and reigning 20+ footers over 6'10 defenders like he's shooting over a chair, THEN runs the floor like a small forward and handle the ball like a 2-guard, I am in complete disbelief - Like I'm watching a 7 foot version of Larry Bird. The reasons Dirk doesn't rank higher than he does on the list is because he usually only has an impact on the game from a scoring perspective. Though he is a good passer and a good rebounder, he cannot dominate a game in any way other than scoring. And though I must count his recent post seasons failures against him, I still give him credit for a historic Game 7 performance against the Spurs in the 2006 playoffs.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Recent postseason meltdowns, can only dominate through scoring.

8. Yao Ming - I have a feeling Yao will be the most disputed player on my list, but how can I leave off the NBA's best center? As far as centers go, I give him the nod over Amare Stoudemire in the western conference. What about the east? Shaq? No. You want me to say Dwight Howard, who is on the cusp of greatness, but he is not a polished enough low post scorer to play at a championship level - But I'll talk about him more it in my next NBA entry. Yao has quietly improved his play every year, was an MVP candidate last year before injury, and is a nightmare to guard for anybody because of his inside/outside prowess. And anybody that Jeff Van Gundy is on the record vouching for as "the hardest working player I've ever coached" gets bonus points with me.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Yao is a below average help defender because his feet are so slow, had a tendency to get into foul trouble, and has a tendency to be inconsistent. I don't think he's soft, though.

9. Carmelo Anthony - Similar to Nowitzki, Carmelo is a very solid all-around player but can still only dominate the game with one phase of his game. But in that one phase of his game, scoring the ball, Anthony is amongst the 3 or 4 most proficient players in the league. So, though he's not the most complete player in terms of defense, rebounding and passing, he may very well be the most complete offensive player outside of Kobe Bryant. Carmelo is a tremendous athlete that can beat a defender off the dribble, at the rim, or just shooting over them. He may also have the best post-up game of any small forward in the NBA. 'Melo should definitely make several All-NBA 1st team appearance before his career is over.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Cheap shots players and runs away, can only dominate through scoring.

10. Jason Kidd - I know Kidd is getting towards the end of his career and I know his defense is somewhat romanticized, though he is a very good defender, but of all the remaining great players in the NBA, which one gives you the best shot of winning a championship? I'd take Kidd, though you can make an argument that Deron Williams and Chris Paul are just as good. The reason - he's been in the NBA finals twice, nobody outside of Steve Nash elevates the level of his teammates more than Kidd, he's a very good defender, and he's a triple-double threat every night. And he doesn't just barely eke out triple doubles - he had 19 rebounds from the point guard position the other night! So in the end, Kidd's experience and defense outweighs, at least in my opinion, the scoring ability and youth of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. I also love how Kidd is one of those rare ambidextrous players, especially since he's a point guard. Others include Steve Nash and Carlos Boozer.

Fatal Flaw(s) - Age, barking knee, inconsistent (and that's being friendly) shooter.

Notable Honorable Mention List

Gilbert Arenas - Great scorer, great clutch shooter, but a shoot-first point guard that doesn't defend.

Tracy McGrady - Immensely talented, but like Yao is missing an intangible. Yao makes the list over McGrady because he's the best at his position in the NBA. And because if they were both Top-10 players, they'd be legitimate title contenders. But more on T-Mac and the Rockets next entry.

Carlos Boozer - One of my favorite NBA players, I think he barely misses the list. He has around 70 more games to make his case.

Deron Williams/Chris Paul/Baron Davis/Tony Parker- Sooooooooo close, especially Williams and Paul.

Allen Iverson - Similar to the argument with McGrady and Yao, if he was really a top-10 player the Nuggets would be a finals favorite. Though, he's really tough to leave off the list.

Dwight Howard - Again, I'll be writing more about him next entry BUT despite his awesomeness and dominance, there's just too many nights where he gets under 10 shots in a game.

Narrowly Scoped WEEK 12 Recap

Weekend Media Gaffe

• During the Nets post game show, after a road win over the Lakers, a reporter asked coach Lawrence Frank how this win ranked in the context of his career? Frank was obviously dumbfounded by the question, a natural reaction when you consider the fact that he's won 18 playoff games AND that it's November. Was the reporter expecting Frank to say? I think this was the 56th best win of my career. OR - Of all the November wins in my career, I must say this was easily among the 9 or 10 best.
  

NFL Week 12 Observations

Philadelphia @ New England - AKA SUPER BOWL 39.5

A great game, 8.167 times closer than anybody would have expected when considering the game time pont spread favored New England by 24.5 points. I would have taken the points when choosing this game, with the logic that if the Patriots can cover a spread that large, against a team with very solid overall talent, then you just tip your hat to them. But then I psyched myself out - I remembered how the Patriots have dominated every team aside from the Colts, I factored in the home field advantage, the backup quarterback, and a Thursday Sal Paolantonio interview that I stumbled upon on ESPN radio, where he basically said that the Eagles were a team in complete disarray. Needless to say I, like a lot of people, were dead wrong.

If I were a fan of either team I would have punched my fist threw a wall watching this game.

From a Patriots perspective - Was it not the weirdest thing watching AJ Feeley and the Eagles wide receivers carve up the middle of the Patriots defense on In-Route after In-Route? Since when does a Bill Belichick led defense not make a single adjustment when their opponent is abusing on the same exact play, time and time again? My opinion is that Belichick's game plan was either dead set on stopping Brian Westbrook and would under no circumstances change their attack OR Coach Belichick wanted to eke out a victory so that his team would remain focused for the rest of their conquest towards perfection. As crazy as the latter may sound, how else could you explain the greatest defensive game-planner/adjustment maker not changing a single scheme when his team is getting killed by the same attack, time and time again? This would be akin to Tony LaRussa completely ignoring Jose Reyes on the base paths or Greg Poppovich not adjusting to an ultra-successful Utah Jazz pick and roll - Coaches of this magnitude always make adjustments.

From a Eagles perspective - Any Philadelphia fan, after recovering from the initial shock of not being down by 21 points at halftime, must have been pulling their hair out watching little Wes Welker catch 13 receptions for 149 yards. This would be like if David Lee lit up the Spurs on national TV (if the Knicks and were relevant) for 35 points and 18 rebounds. But at least this is somewhat explainable from the Eagles coaching standpoint - It was either single cover Randy Moss or take your chances against Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, and Watson. This time the plan almost worked, but as the Cleveland Browns found out earlier in the season - When you rotate your entire defense towards stopping one player (Moss), Brady will make you pay. The difference here was that the Eagles mounted such a formidable pass rush against the Pats that Brady was somewhat limited in picking apart the Eagles secondary, though New England was a dubious Randy Moss interference call and a missed chip-shot field goal away from scoring their usual 41 points. BUT back to Eagles fans pulling their hair out - It was obviously extremely painful for any Philly native or fan rooting vehemently against the Patriot quest for a perfect season, when AJ Feeley made the biggest mistake of his life - overthrowing an Out-Route to Kevin Curtis for a pick, when he was literally throwing for 100% on In-Routes AND when the Eagles needed to milk the clock before scoring. I can make at least a dozen different analogies for how stupid this was but I don't want to kill AJ Feeley after playing the game of his life for most of 55 minutes. Even with Feeley throwing away the game, the Eagles now have a legitimate quarterback controversy on their hands.

Is there now a "blue-print" to beating New England? Were the Patriots exposed?

I think there was already a blueprint to challenging New England, just that nobody has been able to successfully execute it. The Eagles pressured Brady, were physical with the New England wide receivers, and tried to keep the Patriots offense off the field - no surprises there. The problem is there aren't a lot of teams with a defensive coordinator who can create pressure like Jimmy Johnson that have an elite level cornerback (Lito Shepard) who can get help over the top from an elite level safety (Brian Dawkins) when guarding Randy Moss.

I think we also need to be reasonable. We cannot expect New England to blow-out every team they play and we can't expect them to be UP 100% emotionally for every game they play. We must also consider that now that the Patriots have a huge bulls eye on their back, every team is going to prepare and play against New England like its the Super Bowl.

With that said, it is definitely possible that New England may lose a game this season because of their hubris - or excessive pride that ultimately leads to one's downfall. Why did the Patriots make no attempt to run the ball, especially when Tom Brady has a near perfect passer rating on play action passes? Why didn't the Patriots defense make any adjustments after being killed on the same passing routes on dozens of occasions? Why didn't Lawrence Maroney make his first appearance on the field until the 2nd half? These questions may only prove relevant to this single game. BUT if the arrogance that they don't need to run the ball and that they don't need to adjust their game plan persists - then 1972 Dolphins will be able to celebrate for another year.

Why so much of a discussion on the Patriots? What about the Giants and Jets?

To be honest, I discuss the Patriots almost every week because they've been on national television A LOT this season and I'm captivated by the story - like most members of the sports media are. Another way to put it is that when following a sport, there are only 2 truly important story lines: 1) The progress of the team you root for. 2) Figuring out who will ultimately contend for the title, this year and in future seasons. It is almost irrefutably evident after watching 12 weeks of professional football, that the only way another team is going to win Super Bowl 42 (or 43) is if they find a way to knock off New England. So in essence, analyzing the strengths, weakness, and vulnerabilities of the Patriots - or in other words, taking their temperature every week, is an essential part of being an NFL fan if you're going to perform the second essential duty of following a sport - figuring out who will ultimately contend for the title.

So how about those Jets and Giants? Does anybody really want to read the notes I took on Giants/Vikings and Jets/Cowboys when both game could be successfully summed up in a nutshell? I mean, these games were painful to watch, neither being worthy of attention after the 3rd quarter. But here's what we can take away from each game.

The Giants:

I've been comparing Eli Manning to one of Mike Vick's pit bulls for 2 weeks now, and he finally bit the Giants and their fans in the face. No other analysis of the game is necessary when your quarterback plays that poorly - its simply impossible to win. I just can't believe that he laid such an egg against the worst pass defense in the NFL. Well maybe I can. But you've got to feel bad for Eli Manning after playing that poorly when his superstar brother came to Giants Stadium to watch the game. Can you imagine if you were playing Willy Lohman in a local production of Death of a Salesman, and your older, critically acclaimed, Tony Award winning brother, flew across the country for the sole purpose of watching you on stage. Then imagine if you forgot all of your lines and the audience promptly exited the show before the start of ACT II. Now you have a better grasp of how Eli Manning feels 6 to 8 times a year.

The Giants defense played fine. Knowing what we know about the Giants secondary, the fatal error(s) made in pass coverage shouldn't come as much of surprise, save for the fact that the Vikings are amongst the worst passing teams in the NFL. Anyways, next week's game against the Bears is not without significance.
Though the Giants are still in excellent shape as they control their own playoff destiny, a loss to the Chicago would bring them to 7-5. If you pencil them in for a loss in week 17 against New England, that means the Giants would have to play very pressure packed football weeks 13-16. But a win against the Bears has the G-Men sitting pretty at 8-4, with 11-5 or 10-6 final record easily in reach.

So if you're a Giants fan, don’t be too upset with a loss to an inferior opponent on your home field. YES, that last sentence sounds bad, but you know that Giants under Tom Coughlin are good for at least one loss against a team they have no business losing too - just don't make it a habit. And that's not a cheap shot or a slight of any kind - any Giants fan knows their team has a tendency to play down to their competition after periods of winning football. And talk about playing down, the Giants looked so bad at one point Sunday that analyst Daryl Johnston wondered aloud if the Giants offense practiced at all during the week.

The Jets:

The Jets to a substantial degree have a dearth of talent - especially offensively when they're missing Lavarenus Coles. They also start a quarterback with less than 6 games of experience. In order for the Jets to win a game in 2007, one of two things has to happen.

1. They have to play a team of comparable or lesser talent. That is how they defeated Miami.

2. They must impeccably execute a well thought game plan, limiting what a team can do offensively through misdirection. That explains the Jets upset win over the Steelers and also accounts for in the neighborhood of six of their victories in 2006.

It is clear to see why the Jets had no chance at Texas Stadium on Thanksgiving Day. You can't expect this current Jets team, with only 3 days of preparation to compete with a vastly superior in talent NFC Juggernaut like the Cowboys, on the road nonetheless.

Random Thought from Week 12...

- When will it become officially gay for a non-Saints fan to wear a Reggie Bush jersey? Now hear me out because I don't throw around that word loosely. Reggie Bush hasn't been a good NFL player in what is now 1.5+ seasons, though this is not to say he won't rebound and be spectacular. So for a non-Saints fan to wear a Reggie Bush jersey at this point it would mean that either 1) He simply enjoys the color schemes of the Saints jerseys. 2) Likes Reggie Bush for his charisma or boyish good looks. ESPN.com lists 41 running backs that have enough rushing attempts to qualify for its statistical listings. Of those 41 running backs Reggie Bush is listed 39th in yards per carry. What I'm trying to say is, Brian Leonard also averages 3.6 yards per carry, but non-Rams fans don't buy his jersey. So for all of you Reggie Bush jersey owners who do not root for the Saints, myself included (Christmas Present), you better hope Bush starts taking the league by storm OR the only place that jersey will be appropriate is Cherry Grove and San Francisco.

I'm an Idiot because...

1. After a Brandon Lang/John Anthony/Sam Rothstein type 3-week handicapping run, I had my worst week against the spread in recent memory - a painful, disgusting, hideous, hippyish 3-12. Again, for the pop culture impaired, those names comes from the movies Two for the Money & Casino

What to look for tomorrow:

- A huge NBA entry, including a TOP-10 players list among many others thoughts.

House Cleaning & Week 12 NFL Picks

House Cleaning

I hope everybody had a wonderful, and more importantly - A REFLECTIVE Thanksgiving.

I'd first like to apologize for somewhat mailing it in this week. Apparently researching and typing in the same position for 4-hour periods isn't good for the overall health of your neck, nor does it help alleviate headaches. So I've been on and off the physically unable to perform list, but promise to return to full strength this upcoming week - starting the week off strong with an NBA Top-10 players list and other NBA observations. How do the careers of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant parallel Seinfeld and Curb Your Enthusiasm? You'll find out next week.

Yesterday I went 1-2 in NFL picks. I know those picks weren't posted, but I did pick for the record - I was wrong about the Jets and Falcons covering enormous point spreads and correct about Green Bay OVER Detroit by more than 4 points.

Summing up yesterday's football as concisely as possible:

Green Bay OVER Detroit: It is now reasonable to believe that the Packers are the NFC's best team. Of course we'll find out next week when they face off against the Cowboys. I just think that if anybody is going to slow down the Dallas wide receivers, it would be the physical Green Bay corners. As for Detroit - the 2nd half collapse seems about as imminent as John Kitna leading the NFL in times sacked.

Dallas OVER New York Jets: Plan and Simple, A three day turnaround for a rookie quarterback, on the road, on Thanksgiving, against arguably the NFC's best team is just too much to overcome. Silver Lining: Despite rookie cornerback Darrelle Revis giving up a TD to Terrell Owens, I think he did a fantastic job containing him for most of Thursday's game.

Indianapolis OVER Atlanta: Falcons were just outclassed, no surprise there.


Now if I can just go back in time for a moment... I would like to give myself a pat on the back for predicting the Arizona upset over Oregon AND nearly being correct about Nevada upsetting Hawaii. If you're worried that I'm getting too cocky, You Shouldn't Be. I did say Michigan would beat Ohio State.

Week 12 NFL Picks: Abridged Version

Home team in CAPS

Titans (-1.5) OVER BENGALS

JAGS (-8.5) OVER Bills

CHIEFS (-6) OVER Raiders

Houston (+3.5) OVER BROWNS

Seahawks (-3) OVER RAMS

GIANTS (-6) OVER Vikings

PANTHERS (+3) OVER Saints

Redskins (+3) OVER BUCS

CARDINALS (-11) OVER 49ers

Broncos (+1) over Bears

Ravens (+10) OVER Chargers

PATRIOTS (-24.5) OVER Eagles

STEELERS (-15.5) OVER Miami

Last Week (12-4) - Season Total (87-60-10)

NFL Week 11 Observations

Weekend Media Gaffes: Late Edition

• You know how Stuart Scott does that "Wha Wha Wha Happened is..." thing when reading highlights? Emmitt Smith, when giving his analysis after the MNF game, unknowingly and inadvertantly started his monologue by saying "Wha Wha Wha Happened is..." The funniest part about it is that Stuart Scott was the host of the set when Emmitt said this, making it appear at first like a homage. Knowing what we know about Emmitt Smith, it wasn't.
  
  
• Minutes later, Emmitt Smith called the Super Bowl the National Championship. But on a serious note, I know a lot of times Emmitt has a tough time getting it out, but he's really not that bad of an analyst and you can tell he trying really, really hard.
  
  

Week 11 Observations

We'll begin in New York...

Giants @ Lions

It was interesting to see that Eli Manning has an endoresment deal with Citizen Eco Drive watches, normally it's Peyton's face we see on all the commercials. The Eco Drive catchphrase is "Unstoppable, like the people that wear them" - I guess nobody at Citizen saw Eli's game against the Cowboys. But Eli played very well in the Giants 16-10 win over the Lions, which shouldn't come as a huge surprise. He's a good quarterback. If you remember last week I likened Eli to one of Michael Vick's pit bulls. Again, Vick's pit bulls can be good dogs if you nurse them back to health. You would just would never want to own one because you'd never know when it would attack somebody. Similarly, Eli's a good quarterback that can turn fatally erratic or careless at the drop of a hat - which usually seems to be the most in-opportune times.

In my preview of Giants @ Lions, I wondered which team's history would supersede the other's. Would the Giants recent history under Tom Coughlin to utterly collapse in the second half be stronger than the Lions "storied" history of just being plain awful?

This Week 11 match up played out like one of those Final Destination movies - where both parties were trying to escape what seemed like an inevitable death - or collapse - as the Giants and Lions continued to make mistake after mistake, with any one of them possibly being the straw to break the camels back. In the end, Detroit was the team that shot itself in the foot more times - committing more penalties, turnovers, and ill-advised plays than their opponent. Plus, the Lions have ZERO confidence running the football, forcing the immobile John Kitna to drop back 43 times against the NFC best pass rush. And to say the Lions have offensive line problems may be the understatement of the year.

Espn.com's game summary byline for the Giants @ Lions is Strahan, secondary help Giants beat Lions. Yes, Michael Strahan (3 sacks Sunday) had a terrific game against Detroit, no questions about it. But anybody that watched this game knows that Giants have some serious problems in the secondary. Sure they had 3 interceptions and made some nice plays on the football when Kitna was throwing it up for grabs. But the Giants defensive secondary was torched for 377 yards passing, with Shaun McDonald, Roy Williams, and Calvin Johnson putting on a show. There were stretches when Williams was dominant, my notebook is peppered with these instances - including instances where if Kitna had not thrown an errant pass, Detroit could have broken the game wide open. And Calvin Johnson's 35 yard TD grab was not only indisputable visual evidence as to why he deserved to be the #2 draft pick, but also an indictment on the Giants defensive backfield, as Johnson leaped over 2 Giant's defenders to haul in that grab. I think it's clear that if the Giant's play at team with a good offensive line in the playoffs - think Dallas or Green Bay - then they better hope their offense can put up 35+.

- Time to be concerned about Plaxico Burress' ankle. After starting the season with 8 TD grabs in his first 6 games, Burress has had a precipitous drop-off in his performance the last 4 games. His numbers since week 7 - 43, 14, 24, and 47 yards respectively with 0 TDs.

- If this is the season where we're supposed to see the "new" Tom Coughlin, then he can at least un-do the top button on his Giants polo shirt.

- I did not like how Eli Manning, who otherwise had a solid game, took a sack with 2:57 remaining in the 4th quarter (3rd and 4). He had plenty of time to throw the ball away, but at least he didn't throw a pick.

Steelers @ Jets

The three reasons why the Jets were able to upset the Steelers:

1. The Bye Week - Eric Mangini and the Jets used the bye week to devise defensive schemes that confused the Pittsburgh offensive line, creating a pass rush that sacked Ben Roethlisberger 7 times. In case you haven't followed the Jets, in their 9 games leading up to the Steelers, they've had arguably the most benign pass rush in the NFL.
   



2. Ben Roethlisberger, who without a question is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL, had a glaring weakness in his game exposed against the Jets. "Big" Ben, who as we know loves to move outside the pocket while throwing downfield, had the pocket pinched by the Jets defense, forcing him to make plays with his feet set. Every time Roethlisberger had the urge the break the pocket and move laterally, when he could have just stepped up and launched the ball, the Jets were there swarming him behind the line of scrimmage - usually to the tune of a sack.
   



3. Let's be honest, the Jets don't match up well against the Steelers. Even off the bye week with a great defensive game-plan, the Jets barely escaped Sunday with an overtime victory. The bottom line here was that the Steelers came out flat. In the first quarter, the Jets came out with a playoff-like intensity/energy level, the Steelers didn't wake up until the 4th quarter.

- For the entire duration of regulation, the Steelers apparently got the memo not to kick to Leon Washington, as they pooched kicked to somebody else every chance they got. Then during overtime the Steelers punted to Washington, who promptly returned the ball 33 yards to set up an easy Mike Nugent field goal. STICK TO THE GAMEPLAN!

- Kellen Clemens, despite pedestrian individual numbers, showed again why he has a tremendous amount of upside for the future. At the end of regulation, Clemens engineered a 72 yard 2-minute drill - against the NFL's #1 ranked defense, in which Brad Smith dropped what Phil Simms called "a perfect throw" that would have won the game. Granted, Clemens made his share of mistakes, he's expected to in only his 3rd NFL start. But I love how he's smart with the football, can make every possibly throw with his arm, has a terrific sense of the pressure around him, and when necessary, can run for first downs.

- From what I've seen of Pittsburgh WR Santonio Holmes against the Jets and the Ravens, he's going to be a big time receiver for years to come.

- Kerry Rhodes, David Harris, Darrelle Revis - The cornerstones of the Jets defense moving forward.

- This was the first time I was legitimately entertained by a Jets game since Testaverde led the improbable Monday Night comeback against the Dolphins. Ok, maybe that was a little bit of an exaggeration, but you catch my drift, that the Jets haven't been very exciting in recent memory.

My observations around the NFL...

- How easy was it for the Patriots to kill the Bills on Sunday Night? So easy that it appeared that Brady and Moss and had seen Terrell Owens score 4 touchdowns earlier in the day and decided to match that total... In the first half! For those of you scoring at home, that's 16 touchdowns for Randy Moss through 10 games. The record is 22 by Jerry Rice, which happens to be one my favorite records in NFL history. Not because I'm a Rice fan, because I'm not, but because he accomplished the feat in just 12 games.

- John Madden, at least 15 times last night and that's being conservative, said that Tom Brady is playing the quarterback position better than he's ever seen anybody play, including Joe Montana. What amazes me more than just his extraordinary accuracy and the fact that he has the most underrated arm in the NFL, is his pocket presence. There were like four different instances during the game Sunday night when I thought to myself Get Rid of It, but somehow Brady can keep his eyes down the field and subconsciously distinguish between when the chaos around him is really an imminent threat and when its just chaos.

- As somebody that routinely cries at the end of The Bodyguard, but also as somebody that thinks NFL announcers are ridiculous 99% of the time, in the way they usually try to portray professional athletes as the great humanitarians in society, Kevin Everett's appearance on Sunday Night Football was really choked me up. He should get Comeback Player of the Year just for walking again.

- My final thought on Pats @ Bills, because there really isn't too much discuss in a 56-10 game: On Randy Moss's first TD score, a 43 yard reception, Wes Welker ran a deep seam route that got the safety to bite just a step or two. Simple enough, but that's what makes the Patriots so special - they have a wide receiver with 16 touchdowns and instead of the other receivers taking plays off, they run their routes to perfection even when they know the play probably isn't going to them. That starts with Billy Belichick.

- Just think, if the refs don't make the right decision on the 51 yard Phil Dawson kick, the Browns are sitting at 5-5 and we're calling them pretenders. Now, they're 6-4, contending with the Steelers for the division, and looking like they'll secure a playoff birth.

- Kudos to Kyle Boller. The Baltimore offense hasn't had a pulse for nearly a month and Boller went into the Dawg Pound, on a cold November day, and did a solid job for the Ravens. If Steve McNair played in that game I guarantee the Ravens don't even score 14 points - and that's including the fact that Ray Lewis scored a defensive touchdown.

- I know the Redskins secondary was missing safety Sean Taylor, but couldn't somebody on Washington at least attempt to be near TO when he's catching a touchdown pass - like be on the TV screen, even its just a hand and not a full body, just get in the shot.

- The Cowboys may very well be the best team in the NFC, but like the Giants, their secondary does not appear to be even close to championship level. That's why Favre and his stable of wide outs might have a field day when they meet up with Dallas in two weeks - though Favre is 0-7 in his career at Texas Stadium.

- Who would have predicted Brody Croyle outperforming Peyton Manning - IN THE RCA DOME. Croyle: 19/27, 169 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. Manning: 16/32, 163 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT.

-He didn't have any sacks against the Colts, but Jarred "From Subway" Allen may be punching his ticket for Defensive Player of the Year status. His highlight reel from Sunday showed him causing absolute chaos for Peyton Manning and his offensive line. I love how a 4th round pick out of Idaho State somehow becomes one of the premier defensive players in the NFL. I mean there's 2 other schools in Idaho - Boise State and Idaho - that are better football schools than Idaho State, and this guy somehow emerges as an elite NFL defender.

- Bob Costas made a great point on Football Night in America. He said the Colts were a play or two away from beating the Pats, remaining undefeated and being on 16-0 watch, to losing two straight and battling to the wire at home to a Chiefs team with a rookie QB. It's a fickle game. And while I'm on the topic of Football Night in America, Jerome Bettis has improved exponentially as a broadcaster.

- Why it's becoming clearer and clearer you have to choose Brady in the Manning vs Brady debate: Last year Brady was throwing to Caldwell, Gaffney, and Troy Brown - in a cold weather stadium and division, and still performed valiantly. This year, Manning still has Reggie Wayne and usually Dallas Clark, but has totally pooped the bed without Marvin "William Henry" Harisson - AND he plays half of his games in a controlled environment.

- Did you ever think you'd see the day when Adam Vinatieri missed 4 consecutive field goals!?!?

- David Garrard is quietly emerging as a big time quarterback. It sounds awkward to say that, but if you consider the Yo-Yo's around the league playing QB then its really not as crazy as that sounds. Plus, in the 7 games Garrard has started this season he's thrown for a 100+ passer rating in 5.

- The San Diego Chargers are officially a mess as a football team and their quarterback's stock is starting to resemble the stock performance of Enron. Jack, I know you'll enjoy that comparison. I've suffered through way too many Enron jokes while knowing you.

- For those of you scoring at home during the New Orleans @ Houston game: Pierre Thomas 6 yards rushing vs Amobi Okoye 1 tackle. Or was I was supposed to bring up Reggie Bush vs Mario Williams? My memory hasn't been the same since I suffered a head injury, after being trampled by the hundreds of people jumping off the Saints bandwagon Sunday.

- I've killed this guy every week I've done my NFL observations, So I'll give credit where credit is due. Ced Benson - 8.1 yards per carry on Sunday, though in a losing effort, was the reason you were drafted 5th overall. And that's a dash, not a negative symbol - I know you wouldn't be surprised either way.

- For those of us that forgot about him, not only does Matt Hasselbeck read his playbook to his daughters at bedtime, but he's still a very good quarterback. Maurice "Mercury" Morris, was able to do the one thing Shaun Alexander hasn't been able to do all year - Run the ball effectively, to the tune of 4.8 yards per clip on 18 carries.

- Rex Grossman is back baby! The meltdown watch has officially begun. For the record, I'm rooting for him to succeed. No QB has taken more crap that Grossman over the last 2 years. Nobody.

- If it's not broke, don't fix it. Joey Harrington had led (GULP) the Falcons to two straight victories. Then Bobby Petrino decides to start Byron Leftwich against Tampa, who proceeded to commit 3 turnovers in a half a days work, before being relieved by, Joey Harrington.

- I think until Marvin Lewis assembles anything resembling a defense in Cincy that we should be disallowed from speaking of his defensive success in Baltimore. The 2000 Ravens defense could have gone to the Super Bowl with Mike Martz as the defensive coordinator - EVEN with Brian Billick calling the plays.

- I thought when you were in jail you were only allowed one phone call. Donovan McNabb (3 for 11 before being injured vs Miami) better give AJ Feeley and Brian Westbrook a nice thank you card and gift certificate to Starbucks after bailing him out against the Dolphins.

- Rory, I apologize for not putting B. Westbrook in my top 3 running backs of 2007 last week. He clearly has been a top 3 back this year. Your gift certificate to Dunkin Donuts is in the mail.

- Is it ironic that the franchise known for its offensive prowess now has the most embarrassing offense in the NFL? I'd say yes. I didn't realize the 49ers haven't scored over 20 points in a game the entire season and that in their 8 losses they've averaged just 9.6 points! That's paltry, very, very, very paltry.

- I just watched Rob Bironas kick a 56 yarder at the end of the half for the Titans. With Vinatieri in the first slump of his career, is Bironas now the best kicker in the NFL? Think about his recent resume.

I'm an Idiot Because...

1. My semi-vendetta against Herman Edwards more then somewhat blinded me when choosing the Colts to win by 14.5.



2. I should have realized a long time ago, and at least last week that the Saints really weren't going to contend in the NFC this year.

I'm a Genius Because...

1. I'm 12-3 against the spread going into the Monday Night game. It's safe to say I'm the premier handicapper, just behind fictional characters Brandon Lang/John Anthony and Sam Rothstein - for all you fans of Two for the Money, and Casino.
   



2. In my Week 11 preview, I said that my reasons for picking the Vikes over the Raiders was because they at least the Vikings do two things well - Run and stop the run, in spite of doing two things very poorly - pass and stop the pass. Go ahead, take a look at the stats from the Oakland @ Minnesota game and also note that the Vikes covered the 5 point spread.
   



3. EVERYBODY teased the Steelers vs Jets game. And I mean everybody. Was I the only person to predict the out right Jets victory? Maybe.
   
   
4. Did I mention 12-3 going into Monday Night, 22-7 the last two weeks, 31-9-1 the last 3 weeks!
   

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Welp, See Ya Later - Lloyd Christmas

NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

Week 11 - In the league where they play for pay...

San Diego @ Jacksonville

On paper, San Diego's week 10 win over Indianapolis was huge, both because the Chargers now sit atop the AFC West and because any win over the defending Super Bowl Champions is an accomplishment.

BUT anybody that watched Indy @ San Diego knows that game was more of an indictment on the Chargers as a total mess, than it was a milestone victory.

Consider first that the Chargers were playing an Indy team that played a war the week before against the Patriots. Factor in that the fact that Indy was so banged they weren't even able to field a full roster for the cross country trip to San Diego. Those injuries included the likes of Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Tony Ugoh. Now consider that Peyton Manning had arguably the worst game of his career (6 interceptions) while the Chargers caught 2 enormous breaks with Darren Sproles returning both a kick return and a punt for a touchdown. With all of this, the Colts were an Adam Vinatieri chip-shot field goal away from winning a game in which they were behind 23-0 at halftime.

Good teams usually win easily when their opponent throws 6 interceptions.

Good teams can usually milk the clock when given a 23 point lead, especially when you have the best running back in the NFL.

The Chargers did win, but only because Adam Vinatieri caught A-Rod Syndrome from a stripper in Toronto. And Phillip Rivers, just a year removed from being compared to Dan Marino is now beginning to look like that other highly touted draft pick to wear a Chargers uniform - Ryan Leaf.

Needless to say, I like Jacksonville at home, with David Garrard making his return to the starting lineup. (Jags -3)

New England @ Buffalo

Why is every analyst trying to convince us that Buffalo is going to be a major challenge for New England. This is the same Buffalo team that barely eked out a win over the winless Dolphins 13-10, and the same Buffalo team that lost by 31 points to New England in Week 3. Now New England can smell an undefeated season, they're coming off a bye week with arguably the single-greatest game planner in the NFL history - Bill Belichick, and the Buffalo defense is missing something like 4 defensive starters from the first time they played.

I guess Buffalo can bank of Tom Brady clamming up on the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. It's not like he's had success on a big stage before, right? Ok, maybe he has a few..dozen times. But you might be saying that a 16 point spread is a lot, and New England is coming off its first week the entire season in which they did not cover. But remember that Sunday Night Football on NBC is nationally televised- and the Patriots are obviously determined to show the world that SpyGate had nothing to do with their success. Don't rule out a few gratuitous touchdowns in the 9th hour, as New England demonstrates its omnipotence and Brady pads his touchdown stats.

Side Note: Kyle Eckel has now officially been passed the torch from Darko Milicic as the "Human Victory Cigar." (Pats -16)

New York Giants @ Detroit

A must-win game for both teams.

If the Giants Lose:

1. The media and fans will be watching for a Giants 2nd half collapse like a nervous college student standing vigil of his sleeping roomate, that he just tricked into doing a double shot of 151 by telling him it was Southern Comfort, to make sure he's still breathing and not choking on his vomit, so that he won't somehow be held responsible for a death via alcohol poisoning. In other words - there will be a NY media frenzy if it appears the Giants are engineering another 2nd half collapse.
   
   
2. The abrasive, no people skills, stern, beady eyed, disciplinarian Tom Coughlin, will make his return to New York. Which, beside the incredibly awkward press conferences, will inevitably lead to...
   
   
3. Anarchy: Players pointing fingers, Eli losing any and all confidence, phantom injuries from Strahan and Burress, Shockey complaining about his # of catches, Tiki Barber taking a cheap shot at his ex-coach, Coughlin's in-game strategy placed under the microscope. Basically want happens every year when the Giants are in meltdown mode.
   
   
4. Maybe most importantly, at 6-4 you're now in a dog fight for a playoff spot instead of sitting pretty at 7-3.

Here's the make or break matchup of the game:

Detroit has 4 very good wide receivers - Williams, Johnson, Furrey, McDonald.

The Giant's secondary is by my estimation, pretty bad.

The Giant's defensive front-4 is excellent.

Kitna is the most sacked QB in the NFL.

If the Giants can rush the passer like they did in the 6 games prior to playing Dallas, then Kitna won't be able to expose a weak New York secondary.

If Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson out-physical Madison and Wilson, then things will get ugly real fast. Especially if rookie Aaron Ross struggles against Mike Furrey.

So who's history do I go with? The Giant's recent history of collapsing in the 2nd half of the season? Or the Lions history of just being bad every year? Despite the Leos being undefeated at home, I'll pick the Giants to avoid a meltdown and move to 7-3. The reason: The teams seems more cohesive in the face of adversity without Tiki Barber. (Giants -2.5)

Pittsburgh @ New York Jets

Here are the Cold Hard Truths for the Jets this Sunday:

The Jets run defense is terrible. Pittsburgh is a great smash-mouth team with Willie Parker.

The Jets have no pass rush, whatsoever. Ben Roethlisberger is playing like John Elway.

The Jets are starting a promising young QB in his 3rd NFL start. The Steelers have a tough defense, that loves to blitz and disguise coverages.

And for you math majors out there, The Steelers are 7-2 and the Jets are 1-8.

BUT here's why the Jets WILL cover the 9.5 points they are being spotted. Mangini isn't the type of coach that's thinking about securing a high pick in the 2008 draft. He's looking to rebound and go 8-8, as ridiculous as that may sound. I think the Jets are poised for one signature win this year, the type of win that gives a glimmer of hope for the future. Maybe it's this week, maybe it's not - Either way the Jets show up to play. Plus Clemens should look even better with Lavarneus Coles back in the lineup and now 3 straight weeks of starting unit reps. (Jets +9.5)

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Why the Chiefs are doomed:

1. Larry Johnson's out for the 2nd straight week.
2. The KC quarterback situation is a mess.
3. You can't expect the Colts to lose 3 straight.
4. Dallas Clark will return for the Colts, Harrison might play.
5. Herm Edwards can't tell time on an analog watch

I know 14.5 points is a lot, but without Larry Johnson controlling the tempo, how are the Chiefs going to take the ball out of Manning's hands? Remember, this is at the RCA Dome.

(Colts -14.5)

Quick Picks...

Browns @ Ravens - You'd think starting a strong-armed Kyle Boller over Steve McNair would breathe some much-needed life into the Ravens offense, but there's also a reason Kyle Boller hasn't been able to hold down a starting job. Everybody is high on the Browns right now, it feels like a trap game, but you can't lose to a team if they don't score any points, right? (Browns -2.5)

Oakland @ Minnesota- We know that both teams aren't very good, but at least there are tangible things that the Vikings do well - run the ball and stop the run. There are also tangible things they do bad, or very bad if you're talking about passing or stopping the pass, but at least they do something well. The only thing the Raiders do well is ruin the careers OR further ruin the careers of notable skill position players - Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks to name a few, but that doesn't really translate to wins on the road, now does it? (Vikings -5)

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Though the Bucs are 1-3 on the road, its not like anybody will be showing up to the Georgia Dome to watch the Vick-less Falcons. And good luck to Joey Harrington throwing against the #1 rated pass defense in the NFC. (Bucs -3)

Arizona @ Cincinnati - Understanding that the Cardinals have to fly cross-country to a cold, hostile environment, it is difficult for me to fathom anyway that dreadful Bengals defense will match up with the Arizona skill position players. Kurt Warner proved me wrong last week, I won't bet against him 2 weeks in a row. (Cardinals +3)

Miami @ Philadelphia - Rookie John Beck trying to figure out where Jimmy Johnson's blitzes are coming from doesn't bode well for Miami. And that aging defense minus Zach Thomas, trying to catch Brian Westbrook, also does not bode well. This is one of those boding games. (Eagles -9.5)

Washington @ Dallas - With Joe Gibbs really on the hot seat, maybe the 'Skins can rally to win one for the Gibber. I mean, the Cowboys can't go 15-1, can they ('Skins +10)

New Orleans @ Houston - The matchup we've all been waiting for since draft night: Pierre Thomas VS Amobi Okoye. Or was it Reggie Bush Vs Mario Williams? I can't remember. (Saints +1)

Carolina @ Green Bay- Whoever's starting for Carolina - Testaverde, Carr, or Moore - do any of them have a chance of ending a 3-game skid where the team is averaging 9 points per game? (Packers -9.5)

St Louis @ San Francisco- This is how bad Vegas thinks the 49ers are - They're 3 point underdogs, at home, to a 1-8 team. After seeing the 49ers on Monday Night Football, I agree. (Rams -3)

Chicago @ Seattle- I'm a predicting big things out of Grossman this week. Then once he's gained the trust of the Chicago coaching staff he'll meltdown at home against the Broncos, leading the Soldier Field fans to beg for Kyle Orton. (Bears +5.5)

Tennessee @ Denver- With Vince Young in a terrible sophomore slump and Albert Haynesworth scheduled to miss his 2nd straight game, why would I pick the Titans? Because Vince Young on Monday Night Football will not disappoint. (Titans +2)

Last Week (10-4-0) - Season Total (75-56-10)

NCAA Week 12 Picks

Week 12 - In the league where coaches charge alumni upwards of $1,200 for a team newsletter.


Ohio State @ Michigan *Big Ten Championship*

Maybe we should start calling him Lloyd "John Mark" Carr, because Saturday the Michigan head coach will be on trial for a crime that many Wolverine fans think he has committed (Under-Achieving), though the actual evidence may suggest otherwise. If Michigan loses this game, don't be surprised to hear about Carr sending a strange message to the Ann Arbor police department from an email account in Thailand.

If you didn't get the correlation, please use the following 30 seconds to GOOGLE or WIKIPEDIA John Mark Carr.

Moving right along...

How big is this game? Well, Ohio State was so focused on their upcoming game against Michigan that they completely forgot they were undefeated and that a loss to Illinois would cost them a shot at the National Championship.

Michigan was also looking ahead while playing Wisconsin, though you can't blame them when they knew that their game against the Badgers had no real significance. The Ohio State game was going to be the Big-10 championship game regardless.

All week I was convinced this game was a slam dunk for Ohio State. I was even going to roll out a list of the reason why Ohio State would win on Saturday. But when I started writing the list, there was really no compelling argument as to why Ohio State would win. There were reasons, but nothing that made me think that the Buckeyes had a decisive advantage.

I think Ohio State is better, but marginally better. And in a rivalry game of this proportion, especially with the better team playing on the road, you can toss "marginally better" right out the window. So instead, I'll give you the reasons why Michigan will win this game.

1. You'd have to think that standout seniors Mike Hart and Chad Henne would be able to get themselves and their team up for their last hurrah versus Ohio State. They'll focus more on this game than they would for the Rose Bowl.
   


2. Michigan has in my opinion the best WR tandem in college football with "Super" Mario Manningham and "Yo" Adrian Arrington. Forget Cal's Desean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins, they're speed guys who don't know how to run routes. Manningham and Arrington can stretch Ohio State out and Chad Henne (or Ryan Mallet) have huge arms to connect deep. BIG games come down to big plays and Michigan has the 2 best big play threats in this rivalry.
   


3. Michigan is a team built on senior leadership. Ohio State is an over-achieving young team that was not expected to contend the way they did this year. In front of 100,000+ fans in the BIG HOUSE, in the greatest college football rivalry this side of Fordham vs Columbia, I'll go with the more experienced team.
   


4. Michigan has essentially been preparing for Ohio State for 2 weeks. Remember, Michigan mailed it in against Wisconsin last week and has most likely been focusing on the Ohio State match-up knowing they've been eliminated from the BCS picture. Ohio State, who is one week removed from being in the National Championship picture, had to fully prepare for Illinois last week, thus giving them a one week disadvantage.

The Pick: Wolverines (+4)

UPSET PICKS OF THE WEEK:

Arizona OVER #2 Oregon

I just think the #2 ranked team in the country is cursed this year. Cal was #2 and they've lost 3 of 4. BC was ranked #2 and they've lost 2 straight games. And South Florida was #2 and they, like Cal, is completely un-ranked. Oregon is next...

Nevada OVER #16 Hawaii

I saw Nevada play Boise State in a 4 overtime game, on the blue turf nonetheless. Nevada's freshman QB Colin Kapernick made his first ever NCAA start in that game and ran for 177 yards, 2 touchdowns and threw for 3 more. Though Nevada lost, Kapernick proved why he's the WAC version of Vince Young. When the Nevada receiving corps was completely winded and barely able to run routes, Kapernick used his legs to propel his team to overtime after overtime. I'm going to bet that this kid gets a signature win as Hawaii gets caught looking ahead to its final game showdown with Boise State.