NFL Week 9 Picks

Week 9 - In the league where they play for pay...

New England @ Indianapolis

Would it be the biggest cop-out ever if I omitted the most significant regular season game in recent memory from picks? Like if I just acted like I forgot about the game altogether. Or would that be some kind of gutsy statement?

My favorite fact about this game is that it has the 3rd highest point spread of any game being played in week 9, with the Patriots being favored by 5.5 on the road. In other words, the defending Super Bowl champions, who also happen to be 7-0 and playing at home, are this week's 3rd biggest underdog.

You can break down this game from a thousand different angles. You can analyze every statistic until the cows come home. For me, this game comes down to how the Patriots will deal with adversity. New England has not been seriously threatened in any of their first 8 games. They've essentially steamrolled over everybody. We all know how Tom Brady handles adversity, that's a given at this point in his career. But how is the rest of the offense going to react if they don't score on their opening possession for the first time this season? How is Randy Moss going to react when Bob Sanders hits him in the mouth on a deep ball in the first quarter? Will the New England offensive line keep composure if Dwight Freeney has early success rushing the QB? With the leadership New England has with Brady on offense, the veterans on defense, and Bill Belichick as the head coach, they should be fine if things aren't clicking right away. And are we kidding? The Patriots are used to running a 2-minute drill late in games when they're trying to extend the lead from 35 points back to 42. But even though I think the Pats will be fine we should make a note in the back of our minds that New England hasn't been in a dog fight (excluding for a Bad Newz Kennels match) since the 2006 playoffs.

Key matchups:

1. Maybe the most essential of the game: LB Adalius Thomas vs TE Dallas Clark. We all know what Clark did to the Patriots in the 2006 AFC Championship game.
   
   
2. OT Matt Light vs DE Dwight "K. Schrute" Freeney ('The Office' reference)
   
   
3. William Belichick vs Anthony Dungy
   
   
4. Reggie Wayne vs Asante Samuel - Every CB vs WR matchup is important in this game but with Marvin Harrison banged up (bruised knee), missing 2 of his last 3 games, expect Reggie Wayne to be the featured receiver.

Prediction #1 - If Indy wins this game, they will lose in Week 10 to the Chargers. The Colts don't care about going undefeated and would for sure, mail that one in.

Prediction #2 - If New England wins this game they will run the table - 17-0. "So you're saying there's a chance!" - Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber

Interesting Note: Talk about a physical 5 week stretch of football, Indy from week 5 to 10 will have played Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, New England, and San Diego consecutively.

Prediction #3 - Seems like one of those special seasons - (Patriots -5.5)

Redskins @ New York Jets

What do we make of this game? To start, the Redskins are coming off 52-7 drubbing from New England. Do we give them as pass because the Pats may be an all-time great team OR do we say that maybe the 'skins are lacking a certain intangible. They're 4-3 but could very easily be 6-1, is it bad luck or is there something missing? I'm beginning to think the Redskins are frauds. And how doesn't Clinton Portis have a 100 yard rushing game yet? His yards per carry the last 3 games - 3.2, 2.4., 2.5! Also note they've had below average quarterback play all season. Jason Campbell has failed to achieve a 76 passer rating or better in 6 of 7 games this year. Good Luck throwing the ball at the Meadowlands on Sunday.

But I forgot that the Redskins were making a trip to the Meadowlands to play the Jets, NOT the Giants. The Jets are not only 1-7 but have a QB making just his 2nd career NFL start. Oh, and the Jets best wide receiver Lavarenus Coles, is missing the game due a concussion. For me, it's difficult to gauge who the real Redskins are and it's also difficult to determine how Kellen Clemens will produce in start number two of his young career.

Here's how I think it will go down. Jets linebacker David Harris had 17 tackles last week filling in for Jonathan Vilma. He will continue to demonstrate why he should have been starting all along and plays a major part in stopping the run. Jason Campbell will then be called upon to convert 3rd and long situations in the treacherous, swirling winds that are customary to New Jersey in November. On the other side of the ball, the threat of Kellen Clemens' arm will not allow the Redskins to play 8 in the box against Thomas "Indiana" Jones, whose power running will make the Meadowland the "Temple of Doom" for Washington. (Gang Green +3)

Carolina @ Tennessee

I will attempt to be as concise as possible here. David Carr is starting for Carolina. Tennessee has the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. If Carolina can't run the ball effectively then David Carr will be forced to throw the ball more than 20 times. David Carr is the worst road QB in the history of humanity. (Titans -4)

Chargers @ Vikings

Quietly, the Chargers have won 3 straight games by totals of 38, 14, and 25 points. Do you think anybody wants to run into San Diego in the 1st round of the playoffs? How about the 2nd round?
When these 2 teams meet in the stadium named in honor of David Beckham - The Metrodome, here are the matchups to looks for:

1) LaDanian Tomlinson vs Vikings run defense (74.4 yds per game) - What gives?

2) The Ric Flair "To be the man you've got to beat the man" Matchup- Tomlinson vs A. Peterson for TOP DOG running back status. If Peterson out performs LT, the latter is still the best, but that's not what you'll be hearing on SportsCenter all week. LT will definitely play like he has something to prove. Will Adrian "Don't call me Scott" Peterson accept the challenge?

3) Vikings much heralded O-Line vs Shawne Merriman, Luis "The second baseman" Castillo, and Shaune Phillips.

(Chargers -7)

Green Bay @ Kansas City

I'm a big believer that KC's Arrow Head Stadium is the most difficult venue to play in the AFC. Plus I love Herman Edwards off a bye week. Ok, maybe I don't love Herm off the bye week, but I like KC playing off the bye week against a Green Bay playing on a short week. Green Bay's much maligned running game will also be missing RB DeShawn Wynn, though backup Ryan Grant looked very good against Denver on MNF. But every running back looks good against Denver's defense this year right? Then I wonder if I should I start drinking the Favre Kool-Aid after that Monday Night Football magic? Is Damon Huard going to get the job done if Green Bay can stop Larry Johson? Too many questions. The Brett Favre love fest has been driving me crazy all year, but in a game that bring about more questions than answers I'll go with the 3x MVP, who we found out on Monday Night Football has cured cancer and negotiated peace on the Ghaza Strip. (Packers +2)

Denver @ Detroit

Denver gets my vote for this year's Michael Jackson "Man in the Mirror" team. When Denver at 4 wins and 3 losses, looks in the mirror every day to shave, brush their teeth, or apply bronzer to their body before the Mr. Olympia competition (google Jay Cutler), they know they should really be a 2-5 team. Not to mention, Broncos starting safety John Lynch will likely miss the game or see limited action this week. If you remember last week on MNF when Lynch was sidelined with an injury, Ron Jaworski commented on how discombobulated the Denver defense became. Now consider Denver will have to stop Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Jones - a physical bunch of skill position players to say the very least. I also love how Detroit (5-2) has apparently had an epiphany on defense the last 2 weeks. (Lions-3)

San Francisco @ Atlanta

If New England @ Indy is this week's Can't Miss matchup than this game is the Must-Miss game, unless of course you're watching for unintentional comedy purposes.

In front of a raucous Georgia Dome crowd of 10,000 fans who can't even wear a Falcons jersey to the game because their Vick replica is taboo at this point, I'll take the Falcons and here's why:

1. Amazingly, Atlanta has scored more points than San Fran and has also allowed fewer points on defense.
   
   
2. Atlanta is at home and coming off the bye week.
   
   
3. Frank Gore is playing on one leg.

Falcons (-3.5)

Quick Hits...

Arizona (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay

Tampa wins a close game. Arizona gives them a fight off the bye week.

Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3)

If the Saints can get past Jacksonville it's reasonable to believe they can rebound of an 0-4 start and finish 10-6. Remember, I said "IF".

Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+1)

Buffalo's won 2 straight and Cincy has lost 5 of 6. Ralph Wilson Stadium is a tough place to play as the weather changes, just ask the Ravens. Cincy also has a banged up RB unit (Watson & Johnson) in a game where rushing the ball will be essential.

Seattle @ Cleveland (-1)

Who would think that Cleveland would be the one team through the first 8 weeks of the season to play New England the closest?

Houston @ Oakland (-3)

Houston has lost 3 straight games and 5 of their las 6. Now they're going to the Black Hole with "Sugar" Sage Rosenfels starting at QB.

Dallas (-3) @ Philadelphia

Romo's happy about his new contract, TO has something to prove against the Eagles, Andy Reid is coming off a tough personal week...

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-9)

The Ravens scored 14 @ Buffalo last week. They're going to have to score in the neighborhood of 24 to have a chance on Monday Night.

Last Week (6-6) - Season Total (56-50-9)


Email me questions/comments/suggestions - Znapolitano@gmail.com - I'd like to get to write a mailbag column every week or so.