Week 13 - In the game that only those with the NFL Network will see....
Green Bay @ Dallas
With the line for this game set at a healthy 7 points, choosing Green Bay +7 does not make a definitive statement as to whether or not you think the Packers are as good at the Cowboys. You could easily rationalize the pick by saying that betting against Favre, especially by a a full touchdown plus PAT, is just too risky.
I on the other hand will make a definitive statement about the Packers, though there is a very realistic chance that at 10 o'clock tonight I'll be eating crow with humble pie for dessert.
The Packers are just as good as the Cowboys. - Zach Napolitano 11/29/2007 5:06pm
Dallas has a marginally better offense because of an explosive run game behind Barber III and Jones. The Packers have a slightly better defense than Dallas, in that their secondary doesn't have a tendency to give up big plays. And Green Bay, especially this time of year, has the best home field advantage in professional sports - though that obviously does not apply to tonight's game.
Math Lesson
When teams are evenly matched the home team is usually favored by 3 points. I believe Dallas is ever so slightly better than Green Bay, meaning I think the Cowboys should be favored over the Packers by one point if they were to meet on a neutral field. That means that in a vacuum I think Dallas should be 4 points better than Green Bay tonight. But since the game isn't played in a vacuum that means Charles Woodson and KGB, two essential pieces of the Packer defense, may not play due to injury or at the very least will not be 100%. That's why the line is at a full 7 points. Now when I factor in Favre's illustrious history of Monday Night heroics, which was punctuated this season with his game winning bomb against the Broncos - I can say with confidence that will earn the Packers a few extra points when playing in a Thursday Night spotlight game. Then when I consider Romo's meltdown against the Bills on the Sunday Night Football, I think he threw 5 interceptions, that also moves a few more beads on the abacus in the Packers favor.
Finally, I add one more pebble on the scale in favor of the Cowboys because of Favre's terrible history of playing at Texas Stadium. It's only one pebble because the bulk of those games were played against the Cowboys dynasty teams in the mid-1990s AND because Favre has recently slayed his other stadium dragons at Minnesota and Detroit.
My conclusion is that the Cowboys will be, at most, 5 points better than the Packers tonight. (Packers +7)
The rest of my Week 13 NFL Picks tomorrow...
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