NBA Kickoff...
I spend a lot of time, too much time, an exorbitant amount of time, listening to New York sports talk radio. As a result I - 1) Don't have much of a social life. 2) Have a good barometer of what people in New York care about, sports wise of course. The former is the topic of another post, the latter tells me that for at least the last 5 years, New Yorkers care very little about basketball outside of filling out their March Madness brackets. I know this has not always been true. Growing up in New York, basketball was the only sport we discussed as kids in elementary school. People loved the Knicks and hated the Bulls so much that I grew up with the notion that if somebody wore a Bulls jersey to Madison Square Garden, they would actually be stabbed. I think somewhere between the Yankees going on a historic 12 year postseason run and the Knicks turning into the the most incompetent franchise on the planet the dynamic shifted. New York was once a city that of course, loved baseball but also was passionate about the NBA, enough so that in the winter, baseball hot-stove talks took a backseat as to whether or not Ewing and the Knicks could get past the Bulls or Pacers in the eastern conference. Now, baseball is a 365 day sports topic in Big Apple and a Yankee fan probably wouldn't wear a Knicks jersey because they think the blue and orange might resemble the Mets too closely. I'm not trying to paint with too broad a brush though. I know there are a lot of basketball fans out there like myself. But from listening to talk radio and just talking to people in general, I don't get the sense that people live and die with an NBA team's success or failure. I know dozens of people whose day to day moods are determined by whether or not the Mets, Yankees, or Red Sox win, and that goes for a regular season game in June. I don't know one person off the top of my head that would even care if the Knicks didn't make the playoffs this year, other than Jerome in the Bronx - a frequent NY sports talk caller.
- Tony Parker, in the season opener against the Blazers, showed why he is the reigning NBA Finals MVP. Portland point-guards Jarrett Jack and Steve Blake had no chance of stopping Parker in the open floor or off the dribble. He had one fast-break, scoop shot that banked off the glass, over a leaping 7 foot 1 Joe Przybilla that was just amazing.
- The TNT broadcasting team commented on how the Spurs took part in boxing lessons as part of their off-season training regimen. When coach Greg Poppovich was asked who were some of the best and worst boxers on the team, we were informed that Tim Duncan was amongst the best and Francisco Elson was amongst the worst. Both are 7-footers and I think this provides some insight into the difference between hall of fame big men and just the run of the mill big man. Tim Duncan is a huge man with exceptional hand-eye coordination and footwork - we know this not only from watching him on the basketball court but from what we know about him as first a swimmer and now as a novice boxer. Most NBA big men, like Francisco Elson, are simply in the NBA because they're genetic freaks with some athletic ability. What separates players the likes of Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett from others their size is athleticism and hand-eye-coordination. Those skills translate well to any athletic avenue they choose to pursue.
- Bruce Bowen scored 0 points but may have been the difference maker in the game for San Antonio. He completely shut down Brandon Roy.
- In the Lakers opening game against the Rockets Kobe Bryant played VERY hard despite supposedly mailing it in the pre-season. In the first quarter, he draped himself all over Tracy McGrady on defense. McGrady wanted know part of it either, as he deferred to other teammate on offense or forced awkward shots. McGrady later collected his points as Kobe moved off of him and did pass the ball exceptionally well throughout the game. There was a time when there was a debate over who the best perimeter player in basketball was, McGrady or Bryant. It hasn't even been close between these 2 for quite some time now. Bryant is so much more polished offensively and would never, ever back down from a challenge the way T-Mac did. McGrady does not go to the rim nearly enough nor does he put his defensive imprint on games. With that said, McGrady is still a great player, and was an MVP candidate last year. But Kobe is considerably better.
- Everybody is saying Houston will be a major contender in the western conference this year. I would say NO for now because their point-guard play is very suspect. Rafer Alston showed no leadership down the stretch, which was part of the reason the Lakers came back and almost won if not for a last seconds 3-pointer by Shane Battier. The other Houston point guard Mike James, is more of a shooter and his ball handling ability looked dicey at best against LA. Keep in mind, this was a game in which commentator Doug Collins was congratulating new Rockets head coach Rick Adelman on his first win with less than 2 minutes remaining.
- Imagine if you gambled on the Rockets vs Lakers game Tuesday. Let's say you bet on Houston (-5.5). The Rockets were up by 12 with less than 2 minutes to play. You would have thought you had this bet locked up. Than miraculously, the Lakers come back to tie the game and only lose by 2 points.
-Yao curses in English!
- Kobe scored 45 pts in the opener but shot a terrible percentage from both the field and free throw line. I know this has been said a million times but Kobe must try harder to get his teammates involved. He did look great down the stretch though.
- The Denver Nuggets have to be the most tattooed team in the NBA. What other team can match a threesome of Kenyon Martin, Allen Iverson, and Carmelo Anthony? Besides showing off their ink, these guys played great together in the opener against Seattle. The Nuggets can really run the break. Their half-court offense was stagnant, but Carmelo and Iverson can get their own shot whenever they want it.
- Kevin Durant looked a little timid and a little tight in his first game against Denver. At times he seemed very uncomfortable shooting, almost like he hadn't touched a basketball in months. There were also a lot of early possessions when KD didn't even touch the ball. He did show some brilliant flashes though, both when going to the rim and shooting from 3-point land. Durant also made a great pass to a trailing Chris Wilcox for a dunk on a fast break. At the end of the day, 18 points in your debut game is not bad.
Week 10 - In the league where they play for the right to have the quality of their play quantified by a computer, which then determines who will play for the National Championship.
*Thursday Night*
#11 Virgina Tech @ Georgia Tech
I was surprised to find out that unranked Georgia Tech is favored by 2.5 points against Virgina Tech even with their star running back Tashard Choice out due to injury. I guess Vegas figures that the GT crowd will be amped for the Thursday night game, VT might be deflated after a hear breaking loss to Boston College, and that the Yellow Jackets won 38-27 when they met in 2006. Georgia Tech has a pretty solid defense and will try to stop a VT offense that has faced a lot of scrutiny. The most points GT has allowed against any opponent at home this season is 14, which doesn't bode well for a Hokies' offense that has only completed a total of just 120 passes in 07. It's tough to chose an unranked team over a Top-15 team but I like GT at home on a Thursday night coming off 11 days rest and preparation. (Yellow Jackets -2.5)
The Picks for the BCS TOP-5....
#21 Wisconsin @ #1 Ohio State
Ohio State is seeking a record breaking 20th consecutive Big-10 win against Wisconsin. They're the undefeated, number one ranked team that has not won a game by less than a TD all year. The Buckeyes dismantled Penn State in Happy Valley in Week 9, a Nittany Lion team that beat up on Wisconsin pretty easily earlier in the year. Offensively, these teams are very even. In total yards, both teams are 37th and 40th respectively. Passing yards they're 75th and 72nd and rushing yards they're 22nd and 25th. The difference is defense. Ohio State allows an average of 8.9 points scored against them per game! The two times Ohio State has played ranked teams this year they've won by total of 16 and 20, both times they were playing on the road. This time they're home against a Wisconsin team who I don't think will even finish the year in the Top-25. The Badger's one "marquee" win is a 3-point home victory over an unranked Michigan State team. Since Ohio State has won by an average margin of 25.7 point per game I'll chose them to cover at home, though I will be rooting for them to lose. (Buckeyes - 15.5)
Florida St. @ #2 Boston College
Boston College has nearly every factor going in their favor this week.
1) BC is coming off an amazing, last second, comeback win on the road at Virginia Tech.
2) BC is playing at home on an extended week of rest.
3) Florida State's starting QB Xavier Lee is out due to suspension.
4) Florida State, though unranked, is still a huge name so BC and their fans will not be taking them lightly.
The other key factor here is that FSU's offense is somewhat anemic (even when their starting QB plays) and they're facing a Boston College team with arguably the most under rated defense in college football. (Golden Eagles -7)
#3 LSU @ #17 Alabama
The Case for 'Bama: Nick Saban is probably a top-3 coach in college football and has NFL experience. Betting against him at home, coming off a bye week is very dangerous, especially when he's playing against his old team! He also realizes he'll be a hero if he wins an SEC title and it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility if he beats LSU. The Crimson Tide are tied for the top spot in the SEC at 4-1 in the conference. I also love Alabama's home crowd, I love their WR DJ Hall, and I love the fact that this will be LSU's fourth consecutive game against ranked teams and their 6th overall - they have to be exhausted.
*Interesting Note - This will be LSU's 3rd consecutive game playing against the then 17th ranked team in the nation.
The Case against 'Bama: Here's where things get scary for Alabama. LSU averages 224.3 rushing yards per game. What happened the last time Alabama faced a potent running attack at home? They let Darren McFadden and the Arkansas Razorbacks run all over them to the tune of 301 yards. Alabama has also lost 4 straight games to LSU and has been marred by inconsistent play all season. Alabama has has 2 great wins against ranked teams (Arkansas, Tennessee) but has also lost to Florida State and barely eked out wins against far inferior opponents Houston and Ole Miss. We'll give them a pass on losing Georgia at home but I'm still not sure what Alabama team will show up on Saturday against LSU.
(Tigers -7)
#4 Arizona State @ #5 Oregon
What I like about Arizona State is the fact their defense can hold teams to under 3 TDs (4 straight games, including against CAL) while their offense scores nearly 37 points per game. The ASU defense completely befuddled Cal QB Nate Longshore, holding him to just a 50% completion percentage and forcing him to throw 2 interceptions. They also held the Cal running attack to under 4 yards per carry. I also like how Arizona State has 2 running backs that average 5 yards per carry or better per game (Keegan Herring, Ryan Torain).
I think Arizona States QB Rudy Carpenter is good but I think he might be in serious trouble against Oregon. For one he's playing with a sprained/swollen thumb that has forced him to miss practice time. Secondly, Carpenter is a sitting duck in the pocket. He's already been sacked 28 times this year and was sacked 37 times last year. Oregon may be the loudest stadium in the Pac-10. Expect the Sun Devils to have some snap count problems due to crowd noise which should produce even more sacks than Carpenter is accustomed to.
The great match up of this game is between the Oregon rush attack and the Arizona State rush defense. Oregon has the 4th ranked rushing offense in the country and Arizona State has the 11th ranked rush defense. When Oregon played Washington @ Huskey Stadium, the ducks ran for 465 yards on 62 attempts. Last week against USC the the Oregon rush was slowed down to just 3.9 yards per carry but they still rushed the ball 47 times. Sometimes the amount of attempts rather than yards ran for tells the true story. Oregon's commitment to the run allows them to dictate a game's tempo, control the clock, and burn defenses on play-action pass plays. It's also always nice to have a dual-threat, Heisman candidate QB in Dennis Dixon.
Bottom line here: Oregon's at home, they can control the clock, their defense did wonders last week against USC's must heralded run game (3.1 yds/carry), and they have the game's one X - Factor in QB Dennis Dixon. The Pac-10 standings will be tied after Saturday... (Ducks -7)
I'm an idiot because:
- Many of you know by know I had an abysmal week picking NCAA games. What I learned is that this year, the non-traditional college football powerhouses are for real!
- My Player to Watch was Stefan Johnson of USC. He rushed for just 9 yards against Oregon.
I'm a genius because
- In a week where you pick 5 of 20 games correctly against the spread you can't say you're a genius on the games you get right. Even a broken watch is correct twice a day.
Other Week 10 Picks:
Wake Forest @ Virgina (+1)
#15 Texas (-3) @ Oklahoma St
Navy (+3) @ Notre Dame
Vanderbilit @ Florida (-15)
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