My Mitchell Report 11 & NCAA Picks

Eleven current free agents will be named in former Senator George Mitchell's report on steroids use in baseball and all 11 players have been notified by the commissioner's office, The Boston Globe reported on its Web site Thursday afternoon. - ESPN.com

OBJECTIVE: I will attempt to predict the 11 free agents that will be implicated by the Mitchell Report.

The Free Agent Field: Alex Rodriguez, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, Jorge Posada, Mike Lowell, Francisco Cordero, Carlos Silva, Mariano Rivera, Kyle Lohse, Livan Hernandez, Mike Cameron, Barry Bonds, Paul LoDuca, Tom Glavine, Kerry Wood, Yorvit Torrealba, Luis Castillo, Kaz Matsui, Eric Gagne, Todd Jones, Cliff Floyd, Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa. Re-signed Free Agents: Ivan Rodriguez, Paul Byrd. Opt-out/Contemplating Retirment: Andy Pettite, Roger Clemens

My Picks...

*This is 100% speculative*

The Givens - All players who have been directly linked to steroid use in the past but have never failed a drug test. I could easily give statistical evidence for Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, and Pudge Rodriguez, but it would redundant at this point. NOTE: I know Byrd and Pudge aren't technically free-agents anymore because they have already been signed. I am still including them in my 11.

1. Barry Bonds - Game of Shadows

2. Sammy Sosa - Implicated by Canseco

3. Roger Clemens - Implicated by Jason Grimsley

4. Ivan Rodriguez - Implicated by Canseco

5. Paul Byrd - Has admitted to HGH use

6. Andy Pettite - Implicated by Jason Grimsley

The Others:

7. Mike Lowell - Of all the candidates who have not been directly linked to steroid use in the past, I think Mike Lowell has the best shot of being in the Mitchell Report. For one, he's had one of those suspiciously bad seasons in 2005, where he went from an ordinarily very good MLB hitter to hitting like a Triple A call-up. His 2004 numbers: .293/.365/.505 (27 HR, 85 RBI) - That's All-Star Level. Lowell's 2005 numbers; .236/.298/.360 (8 HR, 58 RBI) - To put those numbers in context, a light-hitting shortstop from 1982 would have put up those numbers or better. Why did Mike Lowell turn into Ozzie Smith for one season? If Lowell's numbers in 2005 were terrible because he was done than he wouldn't have recovered to have very solid 2006 and 2007 seasons.

The second reason I suspect Lowell will be implicated is because he is a cancer survivor (man, that sounded bad). Hear me out. Athlete's love to use past sicknesses/injuries as a reason for why they used steroids. If Lowell is outed for steroid use, this will be his excuse - "I used the HGH under my doctor's supervision in order to treat the side effects of cancer." This excuse is always a cop-out because we know its bogus but we don't want to criticize a cancer survivor. Keep in mind, Lowell was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 1999! I hope I'm wrong about Lowell, but the suspicious drop-off/career resurgence makes me very incredulous. Plus his built-in testicular cancer excuse would be very convenient. This would certainly put a damper on the whole World Seriers MVP thing.

8. Torii Hunter - I know Hunter is one of the great guys in baseball and I know his career numbers have remained very consistent the past 5 years or so. But Torii is one of those guys that has been obsessed with becoming a free agent. Every year we hear how he wants out of Minnesota for a big time contract. That's what makes Hunter the perfect Mitchell Report candidate. His burning desire for a mega-contract would give him all the more reason to use a substance that would give him edge over his competition. He figures a shot at a $90 million contract is worth the risk, and that's how much Sports Illustrated's John Heyman estimates he'll sign for. Hunter's excuse will be: "I bought all of my supplements over the counter at GNC." Yeah, more like a Florida Anti-Aging laboratory.

9 & 10. Kerry Wood and Eric Gagne - Both guys are perfect steroid candidates. Wood and Gagne, when healthy, were too incredibly dominant power pitchers. Both have suffered career shattering injuries and both are trying to climb back on top of the pitching mountain they once stood upon, in search of the contract they would have signed if healthy. In a desperate attempt to speed up the healing process and regain their once dominant form, is it really hard to believe these guys would give the juice a shot (no pun intended) ? If you were the dominant pitcher in all of baseball for a season and suddenly lost it, wouldn't you be desperate to regain that magic? If your body was depleted after your millionth rehab stint, would you use a substance to make the process less painful? What would you have to lose anyway?

11. Andruw Jones - I could have easily chosen Jones as my most obvious candidate. Like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones is a known contract hawk (also a Scott Boras client). So the motive is definitely there. Then there's the mysterious and precipitous drop-0ff in his batting numbers. 2005 - 51 HR, .575 Slugging %, 2006 - 41 HR, .531 Slugging %, 2007 - 26 HR, .413 Slugging %. So Jones has back 2 back career power years and then turns 30 years old and hits 15 less home runs and loses over 100 points off his slugging percentage, while hitting in a better lineup? Something's fishy here. Has Andruw lost a step or two on defense the last few seasons because of his increased body mass? We'll find out.

Honorable Mentions:

Aaron Rowand - Was his 2007 career year a product of hitting in Philadelphia or a little extra help?

Mike Cameron - Has already been caught taking illegal stimulants. Would you be surprised if he was taking illegal steroids too?

Kenny Lofton - Kenny's batting averages in 2005, 2006, and 2007 when he was 38, 39, and 40 years old (.335, .301, .296). His batting averages when he was 33, 34, and 35 - .278, .261, .261.

Alex Rodriguez - I'm doubtful, but would you rule anything out with A-Rod at this point?

NCAA PICKS (abbreviated version)

I'm sorry I won't be going in-depth with the college football picks this week. I'm just not excited about the Week 11 schedule, so instead of giving you a half-hearted effort I'll just give you the picks.

Illinois (+15) @ Ohio State

Kansas @ Oklahoma State (+6)

Boston College @ Maryland (+6)

Arizona State (-7) @ UCLA

Auburn (+1.5) @ Georgia

Florida State (+6.5) @ Virgina Tech

Michigan (2.5) @ Wisconsin

UCONN (-6) @ Cincinnati

Florida (-6.5) @ South Carolina

Last Week (5-2-2)


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Welp, See Ya Later - Lloyd Christmas