NFL Week 13 Picks

Week 13 - In the league where they play for pay...

Atlanta @ St. Louis

How do you explain the fact that the Falcons play better on the road than at home?

Because they're like a kid that comes from a family in which they get no attention - the reason being is that their troubled sibling (Michael Vick) has worn down the parents (fan base) so much with his pesonal demons that there is just no possible way for them to muster any real emotion towards the rest of the children. It's just a lethargic, going through the motions type of parenting, or fan support.

A kid that gets no attention at home is just dying for some recognition, even if it's negative (i.e. reprimanded by teacher, abusive boyfriend, trouble with law), so they can 1) satiate their basic human desire of being noticed AND 2) somehow get their family to pay attention to them again. So as a result, the Falcons play better in a hostile environment, where they're actually getting some kind of attention, than they do at home where their fans are thinking about their embattled, now estranged family member instead of the one that really deserves and needs the support.

Key Stat to back up this claim: The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games, thanks Bodog.com! (Falcons +3.5)

Buffalo @ Washington

Not only will the Sean Taylor loss be potentially devastating emotionally, but he's also a huge personnel loss. Even if the Taylor passing ends up being a unifying force, the 'Skins and their already suspect coaching staff had to of had their attention elsewhere all week. (Bills +6)

Detroit @ Minnesota

I know Detroit is the midst of free falling from a cliff, but going against the league's worst passing defense on an artificial surface should allow them to momentarily grab onto a branch as they plummet out of playoff contention. (Lions +4)

Houston @ Tennessee

We're finding out in both the NBA and NFL that the way to win an MVP award is by missing games and watching your team suffer in your absence. It worked for Steve Nash and it may work for Albert Haynesworth, who has also proved that you can make people forget that you once stomped on a defenseless opponent's skull if you can play spectacular run defense. (Texans +4)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Jacksonville needs this game to show they've truly made the leap from a fun pick to legitimate AFC contender. If David Garrard can pull this one off and maintain his zero interception total for the year, then it's time to at least start discussing him as a top-6 quarterback. (Jags +7)

New York Jets @ Miami

If the Jets were able to beat the Steelers off their bye week, then I hope they can defeat the winless Dolphins off an extended week of preparation. (Jets +1)

San Diego @ Kansas City

At this point, I really have no idea which Chargers team will show up. When all else fails, take the points, especially at Arrow Head. (Chiefs +6.5)

Seattle @ Philadelphia

Shaun Alexander is back in the Seahawks lineup.

Donovan McNabb is starting again for the Eagles.

I know the 'Hawks are better with Maurice Morris and I don't think Alexander will try to disprove his critics that say he doesn't run the ball hard. I'm not sure if the Eagles are better with McNabb over AJ Feeley but at least I know he'll try like hell to prove he is. He just can't make any mistakes early or that Philly crowd will turn on him. He's almost better playing this game on the road. (Eagles -3)

San Francisco @ Carolina

Two weeks ago, I was convinced the the 49ers were the worst team in the NFL. But Carolina is physically unable to win a home game and are even worse off at the QB position then the 'Niners - if that's even possible. (49ers +3)

Cleveland @ Arizona

Bill Simmons pondered on his podcast whether or not there is a quarterback who has made more disastrous 4th quarter mistakes in the last 5 years than Kurt Warner. I think Warner's problems stem from when he played in that historic St. Louis Rams offense - an offense that was also reckless with timeouts, play calling, and turnovers - and he just developed bad habits that he has been unable to shake. He's also become the best in league history at ripping his chin strap off in disgust after a devastating fumble or interception. (Browns -1)

Denver @ Oakland

PASTE obligatory Devin Hester not being on the Raiders joke here. (Denver -3.5)

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Wait, you mean the Bucs are getting 3.5 points against a 5-6 team ? (Buccaneers +3.5)

New York Giants @ Chicago

A few trains of thought here:

1. Chicago won't be able to generate enough points with the likelihood being that Devin Hester won't have another repeat 2-Special Teams TD performance. Then again, the Bears could have great field position all day if the Giants repeatedly kick the ball out of bounds.
   
   
2. You can't like Eli Manning going to Soldier Field in December, especially off his Week 12 disaster.
   
   
3. But... I guess you have to take Eli Manning over Rex Grossman.

(Giants -2)

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

I don't think the Bengals are going to run the table and make the playoffs BUT I do think they like Stella, are also in the process of getting their groove back. And in rivalry games, I usually think its best to throw records and point spreads out the window. (Bengals +7)

New England @ Baltimore

Another huge point spread, but unlike the Eagles - I don't think the Ravens will be able to score more than 10 points. And we know the Pats are definitely good for 30+. (Patriots -21)

Last Week (3-13) - Season Total (90-73-10)