NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

Week 11 - In the league where they play for pay...

San Diego @ Jacksonville

On paper, San Diego's week 10 win over Indianapolis was huge, both because the Chargers now sit atop the AFC West and because any win over the defending Super Bowl Champions is an accomplishment.

BUT anybody that watched Indy @ San Diego knows that game was more of an indictment on the Chargers as a total mess, than it was a milestone victory.

Consider first that the Chargers were playing an Indy team that played a war the week before against the Patriots. Factor in that the fact that Indy was so banged they weren't even able to field a full roster for the cross country trip to San Diego. Those injuries included the likes of Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Tony Ugoh. Now consider that Peyton Manning had arguably the worst game of his career (6 interceptions) while the Chargers caught 2 enormous breaks with Darren Sproles returning both a kick return and a punt for a touchdown. With all of this, the Colts were an Adam Vinatieri chip-shot field goal away from winning a game in which they were behind 23-0 at halftime.

Good teams usually win easily when their opponent throws 6 interceptions.

Good teams can usually milk the clock when given a 23 point lead, especially when you have the best running back in the NFL.

The Chargers did win, but only because Adam Vinatieri caught A-Rod Syndrome from a stripper in Toronto. And Phillip Rivers, just a year removed from being compared to Dan Marino is now beginning to look like that other highly touted draft pick to wear a Chargers uniform - Ryan Leaf.

Needless to say, I like Jacksonville at home, with David Garrard making his return to the starting lineup. (Jags -3)

New England @ Buffalo

Why is every analyst trying to convince us that Buffalo is going to be a major challenge for New England. This is the same Buffalo team that barely eked out a win over the winless Dolphins 13-10, and the same Buffalo team that lost by 31 points to New England in Week 3. Now New England can smell an undefeated season, they're coming off a bye week with arguably the single-greatest game planner in the NFL history - Bill Belichick, and the Buffalo defense is missing something like 4 defensive starters from the first time they played.

I guess Buffalo can bank of Tom Brady clamming up on the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. It's not like he's had success on a big stage before, right? Ok, maybe he has a few..dozen times. But you might be saying that a 16 point spread is a lot, and New England is coming off its first week the entire season in which they did not cover. But remember that Sunday Night Football on NBC is nationally televised- and the Patriots are obviously determined to show the world that SpyGate had nothing to do with their success. Don't rule out a few gratuitous touchdowns in the 9th hour, as New England demonstrates its omnipotence and Brady pads his touchdown stats.

Side Note: Kyle Eckel has now officially been passed the torch from Darko Milicic as the "Human Victory Cigar." (Pats -16)

New York Giants @ Detroit

A must-win game for both teams.

If the Giants Lose:

1. The media and fans will be watching for a Giants 2nd half collapse like a nervous college student standing vigil of his sleeping roomate, that he just tricked into doing a double shot of 151 by telling him it was Southern Comfort, to make sure he's still breathing and not choking on his vomit, so that he won't somehow be held responsible for a death via alcohol poisoning. In other words - there will be a NY media frenzy if it appears the Giants are engineering another 2nd half collapse.
   
   
2. The abrasive, no people skills, stern, beady eyed, disciplinarian Tom Coughlin, will make his return to New York. Which, beside the incredibly awkward press conferences, will inevitably lead to...
   
   
3. Anarchy: Players pointing fingers, Eli losing any and all confidence, phantom injuries from Strahan and Burress, Shockey complaining about his # of catches, Tiki Barber taking a cheap shot at his ex-coach, Coughlin's in-game strategy placed under the microscope. Basically want happens every year when the Giants are in meltdown mode.
   
   
4. Maybe most importantly, at 6-4 you're now in a dog fight for a playoff spot instead of sitting pretty at 7-3.

Here's the make or break matchup of the game:

Detroit has 4 very good wide receivers - Williams, Johnson, Furrey, McDonald.

The Giant's secondary is by my estimation, pretty bad.

The Giant's defensive front-4 is excellent.

Kitna is the most sacked QB in the NFL.

If the Giants can rush the passer like they did in the 6 games prior to playing Dallas, then Kitna won't be able to expose a weak New York secondary.

If Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson out-physical Madison and Wilson, then things will get ugly real fast. Especially if rookie Aaron Ross struggles against Mike Furrey.

So who's history do I go with? The Giant's recent history of collapsing in the 2nd half of the season? Or the Lions history of just being bad every year? Despite the Leos being undefeated at home, I'll pick the Giants to avoid a meltdown and move to 7-3. The reason: The teams seems more cohesive in the face of adversity without Tiki Barber. (Giants -2.5)

Pittsburgh @ New York Jets

Here are the Cold Hard Truths for the Jets this Sunday:

The Jets run defense is terrible. Pittsburgh is a great smash-mouth team with Willie Parker.

The Jets have no pass rush, whatsoever. Ben Roethlisberger is playing like John Elway.

The Jets are starting a promising young QB in his 3rd NFL start. The Steelers have a tough defense, that loves to blitz and disguise coverages.

And for you math majors out there, The Steelers are 7-2 and the Jets are 1-8.

BUT here's why the Jets WILL cover the 9.5 points they are being spotted. Mangini isn't the type of coach that's thinking about securing a high pick in the 2008 draft. He's looking to rebound and go 8-8, as ridiculous as that may sound. I think the Jets are poised for one signature win this year, the type of win that gives a glimmer of hope for the future. Maybe it's this week, maybe it's not - Either way the Jets show up to play. Plus Clemens should look even better with Lavarneus Coles back in the lineup and now 3 straight weeks of starting unit reps. (Jets +9.5)

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Why the Chiefs are doomed:

1. Larry Johnson's out for the 2nd straight week.
2. The KC quarterback situation is a mess.
3. You can't expect the Colts to lose 3 straight.
4. Dallas Clark will return for the Colts, Harrison might play.
5. Herm Edwards can't tell time on an analog watch

I know 14.5 points is a lot, but without Larry Johnson controlling the tempo, how are the Chiefs going to take the ball out of Manning's hands? Remember, this is at the RCA Dome.

(Colts -14.5)

Quick Picks...

Browns @ Ravens - You'd think starting a strong-armed Kyle Boller over Steve McNair would breathe some much-needed life into the Ravens offense, but there's also a reason Kyle Boller hasn't been able to hold down a starting job. Everybody is high on the Browns right now, it feels like a trap game, but you can't lose to a team if they don't score any points, right? (Browns -2.5)

Oakland @ Minnesota- We know that both teams aren't very good, but at least there are tangible things that the Vikings do well - run the ball and stop the run. There are also tangible things they do bad, or very bad if you're talking about passing or stopping the pass, but at least they do something well. The only thing the Raiders do well is ruin the careers OR further ruin the careers of notable skill position players - Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks to name a few, but that doesn't really translate to wins on the road, now does it? (Vikings -5)

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Though the Bucs are 1-3 on the road, its not like anybody will be showing up to the Georgia Dome to watch the Vick-less Falcons. And good luck to Joey Harrington throwing against the #1 rated pass defense in the NFC. (Bucs -3)

Arizona @ Cincinnati - Understanding that the Cardinals have to fly cross-country to a cold, hostile environment, it is difficult for me to fathom anyway that dreadful Bengals defense will match up with the Arizona skill position players. Kurt Warner proved me wrong last week, I won't bet against him 2 weeks in a row. (Cardinals +3)

Miami @ Philadelphia - Rookie John Beck trying to figure out where Jimmy Johnson's blitzes are coming from doesn't bode well for Miami. And that aging defense minus Zach Thomas, trying to catch Brian Westbrook, also does not bode well. This is one of those boding games. (Eagles -9.5)

Washington @ Dallas - With Joe Gibbs really on the hot seat, maybe the 'Skins can rally to win one for the Gibber. I mean, the Cowboys can't go 15-1, can they ('Skins +10)

New Orleans @ Houston - The matchup we've all been waiting for since draft night: Pierre Thomas VS Amobi Okoye. Or was it Reggie Bush Vs Mario Williams? I can't remember. (Saints +1)

Carolina @ Green Bay- Whoever's starting for Carolina - Testaverde, Carr, or Moore - do any of them have a chance of ending a 3-game skid where the team is averaging 9 points per game? (Packers -9.5)

St Louis @ San Francisco- This is how bad Vegas thinks the 49ers are - They're 3 point underdogs, at home, to a 1-8 team. After seeing the 49ers on Monday Night Football, I agree. (Rams -3)

Chicago @ Seattle- I'm a predicting big things out of Grossman this week. Then once he's gained the trust of the Chicago coaching staff he'll meltdown at home against the Broncos, leading the Soldier Field fans to beg for Kyle Orton. (Bears +5.5)

Tennessee @ Denver- With Vince Young in a terrible sophomore slump and Albert Haynesworth scheduled to miss his 2nd straight game, why would I pick the Titans? Because Vince Young on Monday Night Football will not disappoint. (Titans +2)

Last Week (10-4-0) - Season Total (75-56-10)