Super Bowl XLII Picks

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The Season Finale - In the league where they play for…

Point Spread graciously provided by Bodoglife.net


Zach's Super Bowl XLII Pick


I was all set to pick the Giants to upset. It was to be a sincere pick too - 100% gimmick free. And the reason had more to do from the vibe I was getting from New England than the incredible streak the Giants are on, though that obviously factored into the equation.

I subscribe to the idea that the laws of probability are catching up with the Patriots. They can’t avoid the dreaded L-Train forever. But the mere fact that the Patriots are due for a loss wouldn’t have been enough to choose against them, unless of course I picked up on some feeling, some tiny inkling, some minute clue, that would set off my mental alarm clock, and alert me that the Karma Police were headed to Arizona in pursuit of the Patriots.

And that alarm clock went off. The Randy Moss battery accusations gave perceived credence as to why he only has 2 receptions through the entire post-season. Plus he looked truly embattled talking to the media about the situation. Would this distract the team? Would Moss show up mentally for the Super Bowl? Then there was the footage of Tom Brady was walking the streets of New York in a boot, either because he had really had suffered an ankle injury or in an attempt to deceive both the media and the Giants. It wasn’t that I was alarmed about Brady’s ankle; I thought he’d be 100% for Sunday. I was just get a fishy feeling from New England, first from Moss who I was truly worried about, and second from Brady, who I felt was using the ankle boot as smoke screen to divert our attention away from god-knows-what. This compounded with the inevitability of a New England loss in the near future and the fact that they looked less than stellar against San Diego, gave me my window of opportunity to pick the Giants to emerge from The University of Phoenix Stadium as Super Bowl XLII Champions.

But then Brady addressed the Foxborough Faithful {SEEN HERE}. And his brief speech amongst the snow flurries struck a cord inside of me like a Franklin Roosevelt fire-side chat during WWII. For a 72-hour span I had somehow forgotten that these are the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick: This team won’t be distracted. Randy Moss won't be an issue. Brady will be Brady. The game-plan will be impeccable. The Patriots are going to Arizona to take care of business just as they have done on three other occasions.

So how does the game play out?

I’ve seen a lot of New England Patriots football this season. My most common feeling coming away their games in 2007 was that they were consistently winning with relative ease DESPITE not doing certain obvious things. These things include not making defensive adjustments - as best illustrated by their win over the Eagles where they were carved up by In-Routes - despite having the single greatest defensive game planner/adjustment maker in NFL history. These things include playing relatively vanilla defensive schemes for the entire season when Belichick’s MO has been to design the most confusing defensive game plans known to man. WFAN host Mike Francesa chalks that up to Belichick’s lack of confidence in his secondary, but I would retort with the fact that Belichick didn’t change his defensive game-plan in years past when he had wide receiver Troy Brown playing cornerback because numerous New England Db's were on the shelf. These things also include not taking advantage of wide receiver Donte Stallworth’s run-after-the-catch ability when its common knowledge that he’s the best Patriots wideout with the ball in his hands. These things include, a sporadic use of the run game behind Maroney, an on/off relationship with tight end Ben Watson, and Brady’s recent tendency to shy away from Randy Moss, when he could probably hit him on 8 yard slants or screen passes on every possession.

The scary part of this is, I think it’s an intentional decision on the Patriots part NOT to have ever shown the totality of what they are fully capable of as a team. They didn’t have to. Belichick knew they could win anyway. New England was good enough to win 18 consecutive games in spite of the fact they never for one week used a culmination of all their strengths, both personnel and strategic. In the process they never tipped their hand as to what they’re truly capable of if they were to leave nothing in reserve.

Belichick is a football genius. He usually demonstrates his superior coaching aptitude in his ability to devise a game plan that could defeat any single opponent.

This year, Belichick devised a game-plan to defeat the entire league. When the Patriots where blowing teams out by 40+ this season, they were actually playing possum.

On Super Bowl Sunday, I believe the Patriots display the full repertoire.

If you're not sold on my Manifesto, mull this over:

1. You can make an argument that Super Bowl XLII will be Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, and Tedy Bruschi's last game in the NFL. You can also make an argument that Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Asante Samuel are all playing for contracts. That's 6 really good with players with motives that go beyond a ring.
   
   
2. Much has been made of NYG week 17 performance against New England, and with good reason. It gave the G-men a huge dose of confidence heading into the playoffs. But let's remember, in Week 17 New York was playing with house money AND playing in their building. The weather wasn't condusive for throwing, New England was missing key offensive linemen, and they still put up 38 points. The Giants scored a special teams touchdown and a cosmetic touchdown when the game was essentially over. Was the Pats and Giants first meeting really as close as the final score indicated? Probably not. Though, the Giants did have the Patriots on the ropes. But even playing with house money, in their own building on a windy night, and up by 12 points in the 4th quarter, the Giants still couldn't secure the victory over New England. With Belichick having multiple weeks to prepare for ROUND 2, with the game being played on a netural field in ideal offensive conditions, and with the likelihood of another NYG special teams touchdown being highly unlikely....ADVANTAGE New England.
   
   
3. I have a perception that Super Bowl winning teams are great teams. Are the 2007 New York Giants a great team? If you're in the minority that think they are, would you at least concede that it would take more than borderline greatness to dethrone what appears to be an EPIC team?
   
   
4. I alluded to it, but it deserves its own paragraph. We're talking about Belichick seeing a team for the second time in a season AND having 2+ weeks of preparation. We're talking about Tom Brady and his 99.9 passer rating in 3 previous Super Bowl games. The stat Mike and Mad Dog brought to my attention today was staggering. The combination of an all-time great QBs paired with all-time great coaches are 13-0 in Super Bowl games: Starr & Lombardi (2-0), Bradshawn & Knoll (4-0), Montana & Walsh (4-0), Brady & Belichick (3-0). And if you think Aikman & Johnson fit in that mix, its 15-0. That type of combination DOESN'T lose Super Bowl games.

The Pick: Giants +11.5

The Score: New England 38, New York 30

Offensive MVP: Tom Brady

Defensive MVP: Rodney Harrison

znapolitano@gmail.com


Jack's Super Bowl XLII Pick

When I first spoke to Zach about joining the site, he warned me of the perils of success. He told me our sports writing venture would bring joy to many people’s lives, but sadly, feelings of jealousy to others. He insisted I remain thick-skinned in the event of the rogue detractor.

I chose to keep the “Dark Side of Writing” out of my mind for as long as possible, but after some recent negative press, I now understand what the wise ZN was preaching.

In the future, I will ask all critics to clear all skeletons out of their respective closets before they attack the site. This specific critic has a questionable, borderline nonexistent, fanhood. He is also “ethically challenged”- as seen in his Coffee Tale, an egregious cut and paste job. In my brief dealings with this person, I have never seen any qualities becoming of a sports fan. And forgive me for ripping this skeleton out, but his life goal is to become a cast member on “The Real World.”

Let me make this clear. If any of you have a graveyard in your closet, and chose to take a shot at ZNJ.com, your remains will be exhumed.

Now on to the pick:

In the past two weeks you have heard every possible fact and figure. I am not here to regurgitate info to you; I’ll let Zach take care of that. My favorite source of NFL news, NFL Total Access, has become unwatchable at times over the past two weeks. I’m sorry, but after a few days of coverage, there just isn’t a large supply of notable Super Bowl related news, and I understand the demand remains strong, which is why Zach remains on board.

This Giant team has gone on a run unlike anything I’ve ever seen. The Tiki-less Giants did not have any outside support all season, barring roughly 1/3 of their fan base and myself. They’ve arisen from what is widely considered the nastiest, most competitive division in football. We’re talking about a pack of elite, battle tested Vick dogs. The Patriots played in the NFL’s weakest division this year. Sure it’s still a high quality pit, but it just hasn’t been entered into as many dog fights. This Giant team has been banged up and flat out thrashed at some points, but they remain strong, similar to the surviving Vick Pit seen Here. Patriot fans have a short term memory. Parallels between this Giant team and the 2001 Patriots do exist. Each team removed a troublesome character from their roster (Terry Glenn and Tiki Barber). Each team has a glorified caretaker under center, a first class defense, and a steady run game. Each team was a haaahuuuge underdog in the Super Bowl. Nobody thought the Patriots could dethrone “The Greatest Show on Turf.” It’s difficult to put a number on what the underdog role can do to a team. Pat Nation has already chalked up a victory as evidenced by the recently published celebratory nonfiction piece.

On Media Day Plaxico Burress let out a stream of hissing steam which the Giant Brass would surely like to keep bottled up until game day. Picture the Giants as an overinflated football, one pump away from bursting. For the entire New England Patriot roster and those of you below the age of reason, the company of a volatile football (or team in this case) is not good company. New England will resort to their pass-happy spread offense, similar to the attack of choice for St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI. It was well-chronicled how the underdog Patriots came out swinging, stifling the Rams early with exotic defensive schemes. They were not intimidated by the flashy, but much softer, team. This storyline has come full circle for the Patriots. They are now the Goliath fighting the wily David. Look for the Giants to embrace this role and BEAT UP the Patriots with a physical style. I would not be surprised if Matt Cassel got a few reps in this game. A late Eli Manning TD drive will seal it and the Pats will fall short, 27-24. Look for the Goliath on a team of Davids (Plaxico Burress (6’5”)) to win the MVP, torching the diminutive Hobbs (5’9”)/Samuel (5’11”) combo for 145 yards and 2 TDs.

ilovethisgame101@yahoo.com