NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Wild Card Weekend Media Gaffe(s)

• During the Roger Clemens 60 Minutes interview, Mike Wallace was clearly sitting in the wrong chair , as it was labeled "Rocket." That, or maybe Clemens agreed to bequeath the nickname to the 89 year old Wallace in exchange for a soft interview.
  
  
• Cris Collinsworth said that it was "ironic" that Shaun Alexander fumbled during Saturday's game against the Redskins because Alexander alluded to the possibility of fumbling due to an injured wrist, in a pregame discussion with Collinsworth. For the millionth time - using "irony" or "ironic" in this fashion is actually the exact opposite of the word's definition. Anyway, the fumble was negated by a coach's challenge.

If Wild Card Weekend didn't live up to it's billing as the most exciting week in football, then an argument can certainly be made that it was the season's most interesting. It was a weekend where Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio was the target of nationwide protests by PETA, for wearing a leather jacket composed of a full three cattle hides on the sidle line. It was a weekend where we received confirmation on the premiere of NBC's American Gladiators that Hulkamania was in fact - OFFICIALLY DEAD. We also saw the greatest pitcher of a generation lose all credibility, Todd Collins turn back into a pumpkin, and Ronde Barber transform into Aladdin, as he gave new credence the phrase Be careful what you wish for. All in all, I think it's fair to say that Wild Card Weekend was even more entertaining than anyone would have envisioned. Let's hope this coming weekend can pick up where the last one left off.

The Divisional Round - In the league where they play for pay...

Seattle @ Green Bay

Sure, the Seahawks won by 21 points last week in the Battle of 12th Men - The Qwest Field Crowd vs. The Spirit of Sean Taylor - but anybody that watched that game knows that Matt Hasselbeck was one Washington touchdown away from adding Playoff Loss at Home to Todd Collins onto to a resume that already included the We''ll take the ball and we're going to score game AND the most devastating case of male pattern baldness to ever afflict an athlete. Yeah, come to think of it, Hasselbeck really lucked out on Saturday.

On paper, things don't look so great for the Seahawks going into the next round against the Packers. For starters, one would have to believe the run-game behind Shaun Alexander would be of the utmost important to Seattle's success heading into the Frozen Tundra. Unfortunately for Seattle, Shaun Alexander is no longer a premiere running back , nor does it appear he has the willingness to at the very least, sacrifice his body for tough yardage. It's never a good sign when 1) Your starting running back (Alexander) is bundled up in an over-coat during timeouts while his quarterback is talking things over with the coaching staff in short sleeves, which was the case on Saturday. Good Luck when you get to Lambeau. 2) When the first time you come into contact with a defender you cough the ball up, and then continue to run the ball tentatively for the remainder of the game. After Alexander's Saturday display of the both terrible circulation and "finesse" running style, expect Maurice Morris (4.5 yards per carry in 2007 vs. Alexander's 3.5) to get a bulk of the work. He did have a stellar 17 yard touchdown run to make the game 7-0 in the first quarter.

Secondly, Seattle displayed a host of other chinks in the armour against the 'Skins. Their secondary showed vulnerabilities against the throwing arm of Todd Collins, they were a very unimpressive 2 for 11 offensively on converting 3rd downs, and you can't love their receiving corps - though a solid trio, of Hackett, Burleson, and Engram against the tough Green Bay cornerbacks. Granted, I'll be the first to admit that the much heralded physicality of the Green Bay defensive secondary may be a bit romanticized. We'll soon find out as the competition gets tougher.

Just to quickly rehash.

1. Seattle is playing Saturday in the toughest of venues against a team 13-3 team coming off of a bye
   
   
2. Seattle has a starting running back that refuses to run hard AND has difficulties staying warm.
   
   
3. Seattle was poor converting 3rd downs and defending the pass against the 'Skins.
   
   
4. I have doubts about the Seattle receiving corps vs. the GB secondary.
   
   
5. The last time Matt Hasselbeck played the in a Lambeau Field playoff game he authored the most egregious foot in mouth episode in NFL history.

YET, I'm choosing the Seahawks to upset the Packers. And the reasons are quite simple.

Seattle's FRONT-7 may actually be the NFC's best because of their ability to both pressure the QB and play the of the opposing run attack on the inside and the edge. We saw Saturday that Lofa Tatupua is, as Knicks analyst Clyde Frazier would say - Ubiquitous on the defensive end. When you factor in his Associated Press ALL-PRO brethren Defensive End Patrick Kerney and Pro Bowler Julian "Don't call me Scott" Peterson - Brett Favre and Ryan Grant aka Mr. 5.1 yards per carry should have a tough day at the office.

Then I sprinkle in a little offensive rust coming from the bye week that will ultimately lead to panic and the inevitable Brett Favre Hero Complex - which actually didn't rear its ugly head during the regular season - and you can bank on a minimum of 3 interceptions thrown into blanket coverage coming from your trusty old NFL Ironman and Wrangler Jeans spokesperson.

Saturday isn't February 2nd, but it will feel like Groundhogs Day for Packers fan.

The Pick: Seahawks (+8)

The Score: Seattle 27 Green Bay 24


San Diego @ Indianapolis

The Colts are certainly banking on the old Nature Boy Ric Flair "God only knows, you’ve got to beat the champ" mentality - Seen Here - as they prepare to march on to another AFC Title Game.

The Chargers are in trouble this week, and its not just because the QB/Coach match up in this game is decidedly one-sided - Manning/Dungy VS. Rivers/Turner.

There is both recent history (last week vs Titans) and not-so-recent history (Week 10, Sunday Night, NBC, vs. Colts) that suggest the Chargers will get romped.

First off, the Chargers 17 point performance AT HOME may be enough to beat the Titans and the Black Eli Manning, but I can assure you that point total will not be enough to put away the Colts at the RCA DOME. Doubling that point total may not even be enough! Let me also remind you that the Colts are the #3 ranked defense in the NFL, which is actually 2 spots better than their previous opponent, Tennessee. LaDainian Tomlinson, meet DPOY Bob Sanders.

Now, going back to Week 10. If I remember correctly, I wrote that San Diego's victory at home over Indianapolis actually proved how unrealistic a playoff threat the Chargers were. In short, here were the circumstances of the game:

• Indianapolis, the road team in the game, was going to a rainy San Diego after playing a full-out war the previous week versus New England. Not only were they missing the likes of Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, and Left Tackle Tony Ugoh, but they didn't even have enough players to dress an entire roster.
  
  
• The Chargers were reeling and were essentially playing a must win-game.
  
  
• The Darren Sproles had 2 special teams touchdowns for the Chargers.
  
  
• Peyton Manning played his worst game as a pro, throwing 6 interceptions.
  
  
• Adam Vinatieri missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won the game for Indy.

With the deck stacked infinitely in the Chargers' favor, they still only managed to win 23-21 and only because of a missed FG by the greatest place kicker in NFL history. Ane even with a terribly depleted roster, the Colts still somehow managed to completely shutdown Phillip Rivers, contain LT (3.6 per rush), and turn Antonio Gates into a non-factor (3 receptions, 26 yards). AND Reggie Wayne was able to torch the Chargers defense to the tune of 10 receptions for 140 yards when he was the only viable receiving option on a skeleton crew offense.

I buy the fact that San Diego is better than they were 2 months ago, but let's not jump on their bandwagon just because they're in the midst of a 7 game winning streak. Wins over the Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, Raiders, Broncos, and Titans are certainly noteworthy, but those teams are miles away from the talent they'll face Sunday or down the road if they can somehow move on.

If I'm a Chargers fan, Peyton Manning playing in the RCA Dome isn't my number one concern. Phillip Rivers, on the road, against the #3 ranked defense off a bye week prepped by a defensively savvy coach is what gives me the heeby jeebies.

The Pick: Colts (-9)

The Score: Colts 31, Chargers 20


New York Giants @ Dallas

I have been very critical of the Giants, and that's being conservative. But if I may borrow an expression from WFAN's Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo:

The G-Men did a wonderful job for us on Sunday.

And they finally got that elusive, signature victory to hang their hats on after a season characterized by a slew of unimpressive wins over mediocre opponents. It's a scary thing for NFC opponents when the Giants put it all together as a team, like they did against Tampa Bay.

I've killed Eli Manning throughout the last few months, likening him to Mike Vick's pit bulls and addicts on the show Intervention. Well, Eli Manning did a wonderful job on Sunday. Good for him.

I've killed the Giants secondary for just being plain terrible. But they played superb against the Bucs. I've killed the Giants defense as a whole for NEVER showing up in a big spot. But they responded in a huge way Sunday. The New York defensive stand on the final drive of the 1st half truly a thing of beauty, destroying any possible momentum the Garica-led Bucs would have going into the halftime. The Giants defense did a wonderful job on Sunday.

Tom Coughlin, you and your staff also did a wonderful job Sunday. I know I'm being being per fuse in my praise for the Giants, but I have to be fair. I'm the first to kill them when they come up short. They deserve to be stroked after a great road win.

And before I move on - Ronde Barber - this is me making shaking my head in disgust for 2 straight minutes....

I wish you and your twin "Benedict Arnold" Barber a nice, restful off season. Try not to have nightmares of Amani Toomer.

The outlook going into Dallas:

The Giants fan should be (very) cautiously optimistic of Eli Manning (4 TDs Week 1 vs Dallas), but will take take a chance on his hothand on the road (the Giants are much better away from the Meadowlands) in the controlled environment of Texas Stadium, with 2 receivers he's very comfortable throwing to (Toomer & Boss) and one big time home-run threat (Plaxico Burress - 3 TDs in Week 1 vs Dallas) that can break a game open at anytime. Plus, one NFL scout told me that Roy Williams is so poor at defending the pass that the Cowboys are contemplating exhuming Sean Taylor's body, signing him to short-term deal, and starting him at saftey versus the Giants.

The Giants fan has to love their Thunder and Lightning backfield of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad "Rashad" Bradshaw, one that can now rival the Cowboys duo of Marion Barber III and Julius Jones.

The Giants fan should be pessimistic of their defense (more analysis coming a little later) BUT hopeful that the effort from secondary and defensive front against Tampa Bay can somehow snowball over to Dallas. Don't rule it out, the Giants are as confident as they've been in 7 years.

But ultimately, If the G-Men hope to win on Sunday...

...they must bank on the Curse of Jessica Simpson, Wade Phillips turning out to be the the Wade Phillips of old, Terrell Owens not being 100%, and 'Boys not being able to wake up from the slumber they've been in for the last 3 weeks. Don't rule out these 4 things happening.

But if they don't, there are some cold, hard facts.

• The Cowboys put up a 45-point spot on the Giants in Week 1.
  
  
• The Giants are usually left perplexed by Jason Witten.
  
  
• Tony Romo has thrown for 4 TD in both games vs NYG this season.
  
  
• The NYG secondary was torched in the Week 10 rematch. To put thing into perspective, safety Gibril Wilson made 14 tackles in that game.
  
  
• Jeremey Shockey, who owned Roy Williams for 12 receptions, 129 yards and a TD in Week 10, is inactive. Though, I'm not sleeping on Kevin Boss.
  
  
• The NYG offensive and defensive lines were both outplayed in Week 10. Manning was sacked 5 times and the D-line was a NO factor.
  
  
• Mike Ditka recently called Marion Barber III the "toughest runner" in the NFL.

At the end of the day, both teams have suspect defensive secondaries that are some what covered up by the strength of their defensive fronts. Manning's been hot, by his standards at least. But Tony Romo is the best or second best quarterback in the NFC, depending on who's list your looking at. I like the odds of Romo, Owens, Witten, Crayton, and Glenn exposing the NYG corners and safeties better than I like the odds of Eli Manning doing the same to the Cowboys.

The Pick: Giants (7.5)

The Score: Cowboys 34 Giants 30

Jacksonville @ New England

Can Del Rio and his trusty leather jacket, somehow channel the powers of Arthur Fonzarelli and knock off the 16-0 Patriots?

Before I answer that question, I must consider 2 other key rhetoricals.

Did Jacksonville show the makings of a champion by knocking off Pittsburgh at Heinz Field on the final drive of the game? OR did we catch a glimpse of a few fatal flaws that the Patriots will inevitably expose?

I'm going with the latter. Bill Belichick can routinely find blemishes on the young Sophia Lauren (The Pats), I'm sure he can pick apart Tila Tequila (The Jags) - especially off a bye week.

For the millions (and millions) rooting for the Jags this coming Saturday, there are a few caveats to take away from their previous game against Pittsburgh - a team New England recently man-handled. In a game in which "Big Ben" absolutely killed his team (3 INT, 1 Fumble, Looking lost in the pocket), where Maurice "Indiana" Jones-Drew had a 96 yard kick return, where Pittsburgh safety Tyrone Carter made the single worst tackle attempt EVER on a scrambling David Garrard, and where the Steeler's starting running back (replacing Willie Parker) Najeh Davenport was so slow to the edge that he disallowed the Steelers from doing the one thing that defines their football team- RUN THE FOOTBALL - The Jags barely escaped Heinz Field with a victory. And Kudos to the Jags. They showed a tremendous amount of intestinal fortitude.

But in order to go to Gillette Stadium and knock off a 16-0 team, YOU must kill a team when the opposing quarterback is playing his worst game of the season. You can't have your quarterback, who has been the epitome of consistency all year (ONLY 3 INT in 2007) show vulnerabilities throwing the rock when he finally gets to the playoffs. You can't allow Hines Ward to have his longest reception of the season on top of his already dominant performance, especially when he's a tep and a half slower than next week's deep threat, Randy Moss. You can't allow Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 337 when the QB having the greatest season in the history of the sport is waiting in the wing. And you can't have anonymous wide receivers when Vince Wilfork and the imposing (in size, not speed) Patriot linebackers are stacking 8 in the box against the run.

The Jags are a top-notch team and I forsee them giving New England a really tough game. I'd take my chances and give Jones-Drew the bulk of the carries against a Patriot defense, not known for its speed, and hope he breaks one to the house a la Joseph Addai in Week 9. The real question is, which Patriots team is showing up? The 2007 Patriots that made 12 appearances this season and blew teams to smithereens. Or will it be the Pre-2007 Patriots that squeaked out 4 close ones in '07 against the Colts, Eagles, Ravens, and Giants with timely defense and Brady heroics. I suspect it will be latter, being that weather will most likely play a factor. Either way, Jack Del Rio is going to need more than his lucky leather to get the 'W' on Saturday.

The Pick: Jaguars (+13)

The Score: Patriots 31 Jaguars 20



AFC Divisional Offensive MVP - Reggie Wayne

AFC Divisional Defensive MVP - Vince Wilfork

NFC Divisional Offensive MVP - Tony Romo

NFC Divisional Defensive MVP - Patrick Kerney

Wild Card Picks: (1-1)



Ladies and gentleman, I know present you Jack Duahmel and his Divisional Playoff Picks.

But first, 2 quick notes about Jack.

1) I was doing the Newsday crossword puzzle today and one of the solutions was "Eating Crow" - which was exactly what Mr. Duhamel was doing this weekend, at a rauncy diner table for two with Ronde Barber. If you don't remember, Jack wrote roughly 1000 words last week talking up Gruden, Garcia, and how the Bucs would demolish the Giants. And in the midst of his Buccaneers frenzy, an almost orgasmic state of enjoyment, Duhamel had the audacity to gratuitously plug John Gruden's book. And in case you're wondering, Jack and Ronde were served Humble Pie for dessert and tipped a parsimonious 5%.

2) The top of this post features a picture of "The Fonz" - arguably the most infamous fictional personas in American television history. He also happens somebody that Jack Duhamel had never heard of when I brought Fonzarelli up in a conversation during our freshman year at Fordham University.

Ok, enough from me. Take it away Jack...


AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa good afternoon everybody! How are you today? I’d love to discuss the high octane weekend we have ahead of us, but I have some housekeeping that needs a little attention. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you the reader have been failed. I’d like to think this news will come as a shock, but at this point, I don’t know what to believe. I’m shook, I’m rattled, I’m hurt. I feel betrayed, double-crossed, hoodwinked. I don’t know where to turn, who to talk to, what to say. I will put my pen to the pad and clear my mind in a stream of consciousness form.

The key to any successful partnership is trust. A dishonest union is counterproductive, leaving both parties guarded and cynical.

After an extremely strong Holiday Coffee Edition showing, I was called up from the minors, in true rags to riches fashion. I was naïve, excited, blinded by the light. My first post was a true “honeymoon” period. The writing was enjoyable. My voice was being heard. I was developing a fan base. It was my goal to take http://www.zachnapolitano.com/ to the next level. I was recruited for that sole purpose. I now feel like that young, wide-eyed Midwest girl who heads out to Hollywood in search of acting work only to be exploited and put in morally compromising situations by a controlling director. Your fearless leader knew what he was doing. He didn’t call up just anybody. He knew I could bring the noise. After years of observations/conversations, Zach knew what he had in me. I knew the sports; I had the jokes, no question. After a few months of zn.com, Zach was hit with the perfect storm. His website became stale, and he had the ace in the hole waiting in the wings to call in and exploit. Either drop the site or suck some material out of Jack? Zach chose the latter.

During my brief tenure at Zn.com, the average day consisted of the daily “must- see” sporting event, brief note taking, followed by comparing those notes with ZN. The free discussion is vital in filtering out the bad material, further strengthening the product. This is where the trust issue is absolutely vital. When I disclose my insights to Zach, I expect a bit of feedback, but I demand honesty.

When I wake up on a Thursday morning and see a rushed post featuring most of my opinions/ factoids featured in a Zach Napolitano post, I have a problem. I’ve been ripped off, exploited like that poor Midwest girl. Zach has committed a crime here, a crime that I like to call plagiarism. Plagiarism can be defined as: the unauthorized use or close imitation of the language and thoughts of another author and the representation of them as one's own original work (Webster’s 835). Any financial institution would not hesitate to expel in this situation. I, on the other hand, believe in second chances. I believe people can change. I realize it was an act of desperation on Zach’s part. Having been blown out of the water the previous week by yours truly, he needed that “edge”. He didn’t take “The Cream” or “The Clear”, he took my ideas, which some would argue, is much more serious.


Brief Divisional Weekend Coverage Question and Answer Version


Seattle (+8) @ Green Bay

Do I like this matchup? No.

Do I wish Favre would retire? Yes.

Was Favre's regular season a windfall, almost like that brief euphoric feeling felt right before drowning victims suffocate? Yes.

Which team has more short term playoff history/success? Seattle. Was Favre ever addicted to painkillers? Yes.

Is Hasselbeck bald or does he shave his head? I’m not positive, but I’d say a little of both.

The Pick: Seattle(+8)

The Score: Seattle 31 Green Bay 24


New York Giants(+7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

Do I like this matchup? Yes.

Do I love the NFC East? Absolutely.

Was I dead wrong about last week’s Giant @ Bucs game? Yes, it was a humbling experience.

Who was the bigger “Third Wheel” on Romo’s trip to Mexico, Jason Witten or Mr. Simpson? Mr. Simpson by far.

Do I feel the Mexico trip will be a factor in the game? No.

Who is goofier, Romo or Eli? I’ll say Eli, but Romo is pretty goofy.

Who wins in a fight, Demarcus Ware, or Brandon Jacobs? Wow, geez I don’t know, that’d be a great fight, I’m leaning towards Jacobs.

Why is T.O. so obsessed with popcorn? I have no idea, but I bet if you took a look at his childhood, something would jump out, explaining the popcorn fetish.

Get your popcorn ready for this one, should be entertaining.

The Pick: Giants (+7.5)

The Score: Giants 29 Cowboys 31


San Diego Chargers (+9) @ Indianapolis Colts

Do I believe when all is said and done, Peyton Manning will be the best QB of all time? Yes.

Do I believe Phillip Rivers has one of the weakest arms in NFL? Yes.

Which team has good chemistry?: a.) Colts b.)Chargers A. Colts

Are both teams playing good football, with good momentum and whatnot? Yes.

Which team was accused of collusion in week 17? Colts.

Does Antonio Gates have a banged up knee? No.

Does Antonio Gates have a banged up toe? Yes.

Who won the Defensive Player of the Year award? Bob Sanders.

The Pick: Colts (-9)

The Score: Chargers 17 Colts 38


Jacksonville @ New England

Am I disgusted by the Spygate situation? Yes.

Do I feel betrayed by Belichick for leaving the Jets after a few hours to coach the Pats? Yes.

Who looks sleazier on the sideline: Del Rio with the leather jacket, or Belichick with the tattered hoody? Del Rio, but it’s very close.

Did the Patriots give up the 5th worst YPC this year? Yes.

Did the Jaguars average the 3rd most YPC this year? Yes.

The Pick: Jaguars (+13)

The Score: Jaguars 24 Patriots 35


AFC Offensive Player of the Weekend: Peyton Manning

AFC Defensive Player of the Weekend: Robert Mathis

NFC Offensive Player of the Weekend: Matt Hasselbeck

NFC Defensive Player of the Weekend: Lofa Tatupu

Wild Card Weekend: (1-1)