AFC/NFC Championship Picks

Divisional Round Media Gaffe(s)

• FOX color commentator Daryl "Moose" Johnston spoke adamantly about how well Shaun Alexander was rushing the ball against the Packers. In actuality, Alexander (9 carries, 20 yards, 2.2 yards per carry Saturday) ran the ball so poorly that Sports Illustrated's Peter King wrote this about him in his Monday Morning Quarterback column:
  
  "Shaun Alexander is not a good football player anymore. A running back has to be hungry to be good. Alexander plays like he just finished the hot-dog-eating-contest at Coney Island."
  


• On more than one occasion during ESPN's Sunday pre-game show, Emmitt Smith referred to the infamous 17-0 1972 Miami Dolphins as the 16-0 1972 Miami Dolphins. {Take a look at this incredibly awkward (and unrelated) moment I stumbled upon from a roast of Emmitt Smith here.}
  


• Several of you expressed to me that you found it interesting how FOX continues to give up-to-the-minute fantasy information during playoff games, despite every NFL Fantasy league in America ending around 3 weeks ago.
  


• Troy Aikman may have chosen the wrong game to say that Patrick Crayton has the best hands on the Cowboys. Not only is Dallas wide receiver Terry Glenn known for having arguably the decade's best set of mitts, but Crayton dropped a catch that probably would have sealed the game for Dallas and also dropped a punt.
  


• ESPN's Chris Berman said that San Diego running back Darren Sproles stands 5 feet 6 inches tall "soaking wet." Soaking Wet is a term that applies to one's weight.

The Conference Championships - In the league where they play for pay...

All point spreads generously provided by http://www.bodoglife.net/.

By: Zach Napolitano


New York Giants @ Green Bay

A statistical analysis based on 16 weeks of New York Giants football is now categorically irrelevant. The fact that the Packers trounced the Giants in week 2 is inapplicable to Sunday. Eli Manning being amongst the most erratic quarterbacks in the NFL now feels like it was a story for yesteryear. The woes of the Giants secondary, their defense's inexplicable absences in big games - Now a thing of the past. And a 9 game road winning streak which began September the 23rd - a horrifying trend facing anybody that roots for the green and yellow.

So if one wanted to make a case against the Giants in the NFC Championship Game in Green Bay, where would he begin? It usually begins (and ends) with Eli Manning, but the Giants seemed to have figured out an offensive game plan that utilizes Manning as a game manager rather than the focal point. The most important thing I learned about Eli this year came from the Patriots game, and that is - He's good enough beat you when the game plan is centered around "making him beat you," but almost totally incapable once the opponent looks to besiege him with blitzes and disguised defensive packages. And with sub-zero temperatures expected, I see the Green Bay defense being more concerned with stopping the running game behind Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw than formulating exotic blitz packages in a game where Eli may only drop back to pass 20 times. So though Manning definitely is a factor in predicting this game - I mean you obviously don't love him playing at Lambeau - I wouldn't form the crux of my argument around him, especially knowing that the Giants have began giving him less rope to hang himself and team with.

I believe the Packers will win a close game for 2 reasons - One intangible factor and one strategical factor.

The Intangible Factor

The craziness of Packers has little to do with them wearing gigantic faux cheese wedges on their heads or showing up shirtless to games in freezing conditions. It comes from Associated Press stories like this:

Upset that his 7-year-old son wouldn't wear a Green Bay Packers jersey during the team's playoff victory Saturday, a man restrained the boy for an hour with tape and taped the jersey onto him.

On Sunday, The New York Football Giants are walking into the single most intimidating stadium in all of sports, filled to the brim with 72,928 screaming lunatics whose sole purpose for living is to 1) Breed and thus create more Packers fans and 2) Play an integral role in cheering the Packers onto victory. In addition to contending with a raucous crowd, the Giants are facing subzero temperatures, staunch gust of wind, and the fact that this isn't cold-weather cowboy Brett Favre's first Rodeo.

So in the face of some of the most adverse football conditions imaginable, who would you bet on, Eli Manning or Brett Favre? Ole' Miss or Old and from Miss? Again, Eli Manning isn't the deciding factor in the NFC Championship but nevertheless, a factor. Can you count on him to slay the legend of Favre in his own backyard while contending with the ghosts of Vince Lombardi and Curly Lambeau? Can you imagine Favre's motivation not to have "Playoff loss at Lambeau Field to Michael Vick and Eli Manning" on his resume?

The X's and O's

Brett Favre was sacked the least of any regular starting quarterback in 2007. This can be explained both by Favre's quick release of the pigskin and superb offensive line play.

It is also common knowledge that the strength of the Giants defense is their pass rush. By routinely creating a disruptive pass rush the Giants are able to somewhat cover up for their less-than-stellar (though playing well), but recently debilitated defensive secondary.

Simply stated, Favre's aptitude for avoiding the rush AND knowing precisely what to do with the ball as the pocket collapses, should serve to mitigate the potential impact of the Giants' defensive front, that also has to contend with a surging Ryan Grant. Without New York's safeties and corners piggy-backing from the accustomed heat brought by the Front-7, the lethal receiving quartet of Driver, Jennings, Robinson, and Lee should flourish.

Of course, all offensive flourishing is relative to the weather.

Offensive MVP: Ryan Grant

Defensive MVP: AJ Hawk

The Pick: Giants (+7.5)

The Score: Green Bay 21 Giants 17


San Diego @ New England

Don't tug on Superman's cape. It is never a smart idea to provoke a person or entity that has exhibited actual or seemingly, super-human capabilities.

How did things end up for Tommy Gunn after he punched Rocky's brother-in-law Paulie in the face at the local Philadelphia tavern in Rocky V? I mean, not only did Tommy Gunn get pummelled in a street fight, but the boxer that played him in the movie contracted HIV shortly after filming.

What about Sergeant Slaughter after he insulted Hulk Hogan by siding with Saddam Hussein during the Persian Gulf War?

And since this is a football column, what happened to Steeler's safety Anthony Smith after he guaranteed a victory over the New England Patriots?

Though two-thirds of my examples are fictional, the list of these types of real-life scenarios are endless (See boxers Muhammad Ali and Julio Caesar Chavez) - When you're dealing with legitimate super-men (Balboa, Hogan, Brady), don't think you can make a dateless sexual advance towards Lois Lane during the work week and get away with it.

San Diego Chargers defensive end Igor Olshansky will not have cost the Chargers the AFC Championship because he aimed inflammatory comments in the Patriots' direction. That's not how it works. He will have cost them their dignity, as reserves Kyle Eckel and Heath Evans each take turns tacking on gratuitous, celebratory touchdowns in the game's waning minutes, thus destroying any appearance that the Conference Championship game was competitive. And to put it mildly, all histrionics will be in full view of the cameras.

Moving backwards, what happens to set up the celebratory TDs and extra-curricular shenanigans? Sort of a perfect storm.

• The Chargers have key injuries to Rivers, Gates, and Tomlinson. Maybe they'll play, maybe they won't. The bottom line is they won't be 100%.
  
  
• The Chargers are flying cross-country to play in freezing New England conditions. My calculations show that the Chargers have only played in one remotely cold game the entire season - Dec the 2nd in Kansas City and I'm not even sure if it was cold or not.
  
  
• Not only is Belichick game-planning vs Norv Turner, but Belichick after seeing a team for the 2nd time in a season is virtually unbeatable. It also doesn't hurt knowing you beat a team by 24 points the first time you played them.
  
  
• I learned this week from a ESPN podcast that the Chargers blitz the same 2 players (Merriman and Phillips) on virtually 100% of their blitzes. In other words, despite San Diego having a very formidable pass rush, Brady knows exactly where the blitz is coming from on every play. So essentially, there isn't much potential to create confusion that will disrupt an ultra-prepared Brady and savvy offensive line group.

The Chargers on the other hand, must pray that Brady finally makes a fatal error (or two), that stand-out rookie corner Antonio Cromartie achieves his full professional upside over night, and that the weather can somehow slow the Pats offense down to a crawl. I won't be surprised if San Diego wideouts Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson have productive games against the Patriots defense; I will be surprised if the other scenarios in this paragraph take place, though I concede that with a roster as talented as San Diego's, it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Offensive MVP: Tom Brady

Defensive MVP: Mike Vrabel

The Pick: Patriots (-14)

The Score: New England 38 San Diego 20

Divisional Round (2-2) - Playoff Total (3-3)

znapolitano@gmail.com