Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Discussing the 2008 NFL Draft
















Mulling Over the Choices to be Made in the Top-7

By Zach Napolitano



1. Miami Dolphins

With the 1st overall selection in the 2008 Draft the 1-15 ‘phins are facing the proverbial fork in the road. One path dictates the need for a legit cornerstone player at the quarterback, offensive tackle, and defensive line positions. The other dictates the necessity for a plethora of young talent; a new lineage of players that can be sculpted and molded to fit the Parcells prototype. The first pick in the draft allows a team to choose either path; selecting the best player in the entire class OR trading the pick for a pu pu platter of other picks and/or commodities. Successful NFL teams have a combination of both, so the order in which Miami chooses to rebuild is not what’s paramount to their future. What the Dolphins can ill-afford to do is to pull a Jay-Z at the fork in the road and “Go Straight.” In other words, Miami cannot use the first pick and draft a player that ends up merely being good. Nor can they afford to trade the pick and not get a boat-load back in return. Unlike other years, there simply is no middle ground here because their current roster is in such dire straits. They must either get a legit difference maker at the QB, OL, or DL for the next 10+ years OR get back the equivalent in terms of talent resulting from a trade. Which prong in the fork Miami pursues with the number one overall pick is contingent on two questions: 1) Does Bill Parcells think highly enough of Glenn Dorsey, Jake Long, Chris Long, or Matt Ryan to make one of them the number one overall selection? 2) Is quarterback John Beck in the Dolphins long-terms plans moving forward?

My Recommendation: Jake Long OT (Michigan)

2. St. Louis Rams

The Rams had an abysmal offensive line in 2007. Taking OT Jake Long (if available) makes sense when you consider the amount St. Louis has invested financially in Mark Bulger and Steven Jackson. But the return from injury of perennial Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace has many draft prognosticators predicting the Rams will shy away from Jake Long and address other needs. I’m of the opinion that if you can begin to turn a weakness into a strength over night (especially at O-line) - Go for it. Long and Pace together anchoring the STL offensive line for the next few seasons, with Long as the heir apparent to the LT position sounds good to me. But assuming the Rams don’t draft Jake Long, I would bank on them selecting defensive end Chris Long. Glenn Dorsey’s the number one defensive prospect in the draft but the Rams are already set at defensive tackle with Adam Carriker.

My Recommenedation: Long or Long, both had great combines to back up stellar NCAA careers.

3. Atlanta Falcons

Like the Dolphins, the Falcons need franchise players at QB, OL, and DL, along with just an overall upgrade of talent throughout the entire roster. Unlike the Dolphins, the Falcons had their hearts ripped out of their chests by the most beloved sports icon in their city and suffered through the deplorable Bobby Petrino saga. I mean, at least Miami fans had their 1972 calling card preserved as New England choked away its own undefeated bid. I’m not a believer in selecting a running back this high in the draft, but if I’m Falcons owner Arthur Blank I’d roll the dice on Arkansas’ Darren McFadden and his 4.33 speed - which easily makes him the most tantalizing RB prospect in the last 10 years. A-T-L fans needs some excitement. They need a reason to fill the Georgia Dome. They need a go-to replica jersey to replace the Mike Vick one that has become taboo to wear. As great a prospect Glenn Dorsey may be, defensive tackles with the ability to absorb two blockers don’t exactly pump life back into a downtrodden city, nor do they sell jerseys. And with Dorsey’s history of injuries, can you imagine the disappointment of Falcons fans if he’s on the shelf for the 6-8 weeks after an suffering an injury during training camp?

My Recommendation:
McFadden would be a huge boost to a franchise is shambles. His selection goes way beyond just being a shrewd personnel move. Matt Ryan and Glenn Dorsey are excellent fits as well.

4. Oakland Raiders

If available, the Raiders simply cannot justify drafting Darren McFadden after re-signing Justin Fargas, signing both Dominic Rhodes and LaMont Jordan in recent years, and drafting Michael Bush in 2007 UNLESS they can trade McFadden for some type of mega-package. Nevertheless, though Glenn Dorsey is a no-brainer as Warren Sapp’s successor at defensive tackle, if legendary Raiders DE Howie Long’s son Chris is still available, there’s just too much cache and acumen on the table to pass on that pick.

My Recommendation:
Let Chris Long don the Silver and Black.

5. KC Chiefs

If Jake Long is on the board, the offensive line needy Chiefs will surely go in that direction. IF he’s not, the drop off at O-line is considerable after blue-chipper Long and the Chiefs shouldn’t sacrifice value and talent for need alone. After Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston’s freakish combine workout where he not only ran superbly but tied Jake Long with a combine high of 37 bench press reps at 225 pounds, I wouldn’t rule out the defensive minded Herm Edwards stealing the prized Gholston away his former team the Jets. Does Edwards possess the acumen to pull such a move? The jury is still out. Did I just use the word acumen in consecutive paragraphs, the first time in an awkward fashion just to use it because its my new favorite word? YES. I wouldn’t kill the Chiefs for choosing Matt Ryan (if available) if they really felt strongly about him- though I’m pretty sure they’re committed to giving Brodie Croyle another go at the helm - nor would I fault KC for trading the pick, and choosing an OT like Ryan Clady (Boise State), Chris Williams (Vanderbilt), or Jeff Otah (Pitt) later in the first round.

My Recommendation: Jake Long or best available talent. Ryan Clady is very good OT prospect but a bit of a stretch at the #5 spot.

6. New York Jets

My team.

I pray that both McFadden and Gholston are still on the board, though I‘d settle for either one being available. That’s the type of tough decision you don’t mind making. Gholston is the logical choice if this “problem” arises, though probably not the popular one. But the Jets need an elite pass rusher for me to take them seriously as a defensive unit just as Ryan Seacrest needs a new catchphrase, less hair frosting, and a Gold’s Gym membership for me to take him seriously as a broadcaster. The Jets haven’t had a difference maker at DE since John Abraham left for A-Town, and their pass rush in 2007 was virtually nonexistent save for their game against Pittsburgh. Gholston would obviously fill a huge void.

McFadden is the sexy pick and he would turn every Jets fan’s Sunday into an on the edge of your seat experience. A very tantalizing option when you consider the Jets have been a dreadful team to watch from a sheer entertainment standpoint for the better part of 10 years. But, I can live with a Thomas Jones/Leon Washington backfield tandem. I don’t know if I can handle the uber-talented McFadden routinely being swallowed by opposing defensive fronts because D’Brickishaw Ferguson was man-handled by another D-end. On paper DMC ’s the next Adrian Peterson. On the Jets, with their O-line issues and their luck he’s the next Reggie Bush. If both Gholston and McFadden are off the board then I foresee them taking the next best available player on the defensive line, which could be USC DT Sedrick Ellis (a possible upgrade at nose tackle) or Clemson DE Phillip Merling.

Away from the draft and back to Reggie Bush for just a second. I hope he can turn his career around and become a productive back. He’s quietly become a major disappointment despite establishing himself as one of the face’s of the NFL. It’s just perplexing how Bush’s entire draft stock, the one aptitude that made his #2 overall selection justifiable was based on his uncanny ability to break long runs for touchdowns YET he did not have one long play from scrimmage the entire 2007 season (27 yard long…Yikes!). That’s akin to Jose Reyes having a single digit stolen bases or Ryan Howard hitting 18 home runs in a 162 game season.

My Recommedation: Gholston, McFadden, Sedrick Ellis/Phillip Merling, in that order. It would shock me if McFadden was still on the board.

7. New England Patriots (From 49ers)

So many options here for Belichick and Pioli.

Option 1: The Trade-Up - If the Pats, who are the best draft day evaluators of talent going, feel there is a player in the top few picks that would completely put them over the top as Super Bowl contender then they can conceivably trade up and snatch the player. For example, if Belichick believed a McFadden upgrade over Maroney, a Jake Long addition to the O-Line, or Gholston/Chris Long addition to the defense would vastly add to their dominance, then the possibility exists for them to move up a few spots to get that player. It’s an unlikely scenario knowing New England’s draft day history, but with the possibility of a few older players on their roster retiring AND with the likelihood of them parting ways with other aging veterans - they already missed Roosevelt Colvin yesterday - if the Pats believed there was a must-have player out there, they could conceivably make the move.

Option 2: Need vs. Improving Strengths - New England has an interesting decision to make, one few are considering. The consensus opinion and most likely scenario has the Patriots drafting out of need - probably filling a void at cornerback (especially if Asante Samuel leaves), linebacker, or upgrading the team’s defensive speed. Since the #7 slot is a little high to get a great value at the linebacker and the Patriots prefer veterans at that position anyway, the obvious pick would be a top notch CB like an Aquib Talib (Kansas), Mike Jenkins (USF), or Leodis McKelvin (Troy). If Asante Samuel is re-signed by New England then the pairing of him with the top overall drafted corner would have incredible implications for the rest of the defense. The Patriot’s inability to cover severely limited Belichick’s defensive creativity in 2007. If the Patriots feel they can get a good value at cornerback later in the draft, its not impossible that they draft another pass rusher OR go after a wide receiver if Moss and/or Stallworth don’t return in 2008.

Back to the aforementioned decision. The alternative to drafting for need is drafting to make a facet of the team that is already strong, dominant. In recent years, the Giants were killed by pundits on Draft Day because they chose pass rushers in spite of the team already having an aptitude for chasing down opposing quarterbacks. But they turned a forte into an unstoppable force and the key to their Super Bowl XLII victory. In 2007, New England’s offensive line was considered to be amongst the best units in NFL history. But they showed vulnerabilities (to say the least) in the Super Bowl. Adding a Ryan Clady (OT Boise State) to that group gives an already prolific passing Tom Brady THAT much more time to look downfield for Moss and Welker. Featuring a Darren McFadden in the backfield (via trade-up) possibly makes the New England offense (that much more) impossible to stop as defense’s inevitably catch-up to them AND McFadden would be the perfect offensive weapon once the weather begins to nullify the passing game. Drafting to improve a strength can be risky, and in the Pats case unlikely, but as the Giants proved less than a month ago - it might just be crazy enough to work.

Option 3: Trade Down - A New England trade down would not surprise anybody. The Pats are all about managing the cap and finding late-round value. If for example the Patriots brass felt there was no real difference between corners Talib, Jenkins, and McKelvin then the Pats would possibly secure another pick in 2008 while still getting the cornerback of their liking at a discounted price. Maybe there’s a linebacker they feel can make an immediate impact in 2008 and they think they can get him at picks 25-35. Who knows?

My Recommendation: If they stay at #7 - Aqib Talib

znapolitano@gmail.com

















Top Heavy Mock Draft
By Jack Duhamel

1. Miami Dolphins- Jake Long LT Michigan

According to Colts GM Bill Polian, 50% of the top picks in the last 25 years have been busts. This staggering figure, along with the estimated $30-$35 million signing bonus this coin flip will receive and a bevy of team needs makes this the perfect trade scenario. The sexy rumor out there is trading this slot to Dallas for MBIII and picks 22 and 28, allowing the Cowboys to select the prize of this year’s draft, Darren McFadden. With that said, this will be a trade-free mock draft- I’ll allow Zach to prognosticate the various avenues each team may take.

NFL insiders will tell you Bill Parcells hates drafting running backs in the first round, especially this high. I would love to have been a fly on the wall during Bill’s “Why the hell did you draft Ted Ginn Jr.?” conversation with Dolphin brass. That pick was horrific and I’m sure Parcells would love to have Brady Quinn aboard as an offensive stabilizer. But on the pick, Long is an absolute rock, can’t miss, draft and forget for 10 years type prospect. I’m still trying to decide which Long stat is more impressive- getting flagged for two penalties in his collegiate career (a hold his redshirt freshman year and a false start last year) or his massive hands (the biggest the draft has seen in three years).

2. St. Louis Rams- Chris Long DE Virginia

If the Dolphins trade out of number one as I suspect, St. Louis will be hard pressed to pass up on Jake Long given the injury plagued recent history of Orlando Pace. If Jake is off the board, Chris Long becomes the next logical choice. The Rams were in the bottom third of the league last year with 31 sacks. Long is that “Energizer Bunny” DE who could charge up a stagnant defense. His excellent combine further bolstered a strong resume which includes a retired jersey, breathtaking bloodlines (quick bloodline update: Eli Manning has reportedly watched the Super Bowl 10+ times from multiple angles-it’s in his blood, out of his hands at this point, like a matured cub leaving his pack to hunt for the family), and a near zero bust factor. I’d like to see St. Louis add a little toughness to what I consider the softest division in football.

3. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan QB Boston College

The quarterbacking woes have been well chronicled and the Falcons must give their fan base a shot of life in the form of a goofy, awkward, stiff, but NEW QB. As much as I hate this guy’s post game skill set (political answers, fake smiles and embarrassing pauses) he does bring a little grit to the table. I view him as a slightly cash-strapped man’s Ben Roethlisberger. The last player any Falcon fan wants here is the Petrino bred Brian Brohm. As shallow as that sounds, this is a very wayward, uneducated fan base that will not be able to see past this. A pick of Brohm will counteract the physical and psychological Petrino cleansing. A Ryan pick will be a nice PR move for the Falcons. I could also see a nice Harrington/Ryan relationship based around football and the Baby Grand. I’m sure some fans would love McFadden here but given their State of the Union, character concerns will eliminate him as a possibility.

4. Oakland Raiders- Glenn Dorsey DT LSU

The Raiders have won 19 games in the past 5 years. They have a TON of wholes on both sides of the ball. Their salary cap is in shambles and may not be able to finance the inflated sticker price of a top five pick. The signing of Justin Fargas to a three year deal will tell you the Raiders are not interested in drafting a McFadden here, as much as that must kill Al Davis. If the Raiders are unable to move this pick, they will draft Dorsey to shore up one of the most porous rush D’s in the league. While the injuries would haunt me if I were making this pick, Dorsey’s disruptiveness is too much to pass up. They have the opportunity to replace Warren Sapp with a young Warren Sapp. Perfect football circle of life. Raiders make the pick, camera pans to “Raider Nation” ritualistic celebrations, the Kansas City Chiefs are now on the clock.

5. Kansas City Chiefs- Ryan Clady OT Boise State

KC would love to get their hands on the prized protector of the draft, Jake Long, but surely will not have the opportunity at 5. I view this as the most talent barren team in the NFL, so packaging draft picks for Long is inadvisable. Clady would be a need based selection here, as he grades out lower than a handful of prospects. This is the perfect spot for the first reach of the draft since KC is well-staffed at DE (Hali/Allen) and RB (LJ), steering their brain-trust clear of the highly touted players at those respective positions.

6. New York Jets- Darren McFadden RB Arkansas

Yes I am a Jet fan and I know some of you will call this wishful thinking. Barring a trade mixup at the top of the draft, I don’t see any of these five teams drafting McFadden. I’m sure all teams would love to add a sub 4.3 home run threat to their backfield, but the need just isn’t there. Gholston would be a more logical pick for the Jets here but the possibility of New England drafting McFadden makes this selection a no brainer. The Jets would instantly have the most dynamic backfield in the NFL with Jones, Washington and McFadden. J!E!T!S! JETS! JETS! JETS! JETS!

8. New England Patriots (from S.F.)- Vernon Gholston DE Ohio State

Pat nation will be dancing in the streets if Gholston slips this far. The experience Patriot linebacking corps could groom this guy into an absolute terror for opposing offenses. To be honest, I’m embarrassed projecting him this low in the draft- he could easily sneak into the top three after a jaw dropping combine. Gholston is responsible for the only sack given up by projected number one talent Jake Long this past season. He would be groomed by some knowledgeable (albeit washed up) LBs, and a defensive genius in Belichick. This pick would certainly send a ripple of fear across Gang Green Nation.

8. Baltimore Ravens- Sedrick Ellis DT USC

Some may be calling for Brohm here, but I’ve heard some positive reviews for second year QB Troy Smith inside Ravens camp. He will have an excellent chance in beating out a washed up McNair and ineffective Boller. If Ogden and Heap are able to rebound from their respective injuries, this offense may be just good enough to allow the Ravens to go after Sedrick Ellis. This would give Baltimore a legitimate pass rushing DT to pair with run stuffing mammoth, Haloti Ngata. Ray Lewis loves it, fans love it, everybody’s happy.

9. Cincinnati Bengals- Derrick Harvey DE Florida

The Bengals are coming off an NFL worst 22 sacks this past season and will surely be looking for help in that department. With Long, Gholston and Ellis off the board they’ll be scrambling, creating a high “reach” factor. I would not be surprised if they selected DE Marcus Howard (4.48 40 to cover up a weak resume) as the “Mike Mamula Reach of the Year” due to his 4.48 40 time. The more logical choice would be Harvey. While his production did slip last year, Harvey has the size and mean streak to be an effective NFL player. He has as much upside as any other player in this draft, possessing an 82” wingspan with growth potential given the fact that he has grown two inches over the past two years and is only 21. Scouts envision Harvey developing into a DeMarcus Ware caliber DE down the road- definitely some nice Kool-aid for Bengal fans to consume.

10. New Orleans Saints- Aquib Talib CB Kansas

Last year the Saints gave up 245 yards/game in the air, good for 30th in the NFL-they’d be crazy not to select a cornerback here, especially if all prospects remain available. The CB rankings vary widely this year, but I’ve decided to go with Kiper on this one, given his recent track record at the position (Derell Revis last year). Talib has great size and aggression for the cornerback position. He a gambler in the secondary, but with a little seasoning, could turn into an elite NFL corner.

ILOVETHISGAME101@YAHOO.COM


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