In the last 20 years, we have witnessed 7 of the greatest right handed batters in MLB history, 6 if you think Mark McGwire cheated, and probably even less once the Mitchell report surfaces. Those 7, listed alphabetically are: Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire, Vladimir Guerrero, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Frank Thomas. For the purposes of this column, I will be analyzing and discussing the 4 players who are currently in their prime (Guerrero, Pujols, Ramirez, Rodriguez) in an attempt to give some clarity to the question Who is the best pure right-handed hitter in MLB?
Before I break down each player, here is the criteria each player will be judged on:
1) The ranking of the players is based solely on their abilities as hitters. This does not factor in the position they play in the field or how well they play it, their prowess or plight on the base paths, or their attitude or leadership ability within their team. I understand that Alex Rodriguez hitting 57 home runs as a gold glove shortstop in 2002 makes him inherently more valuable to a team than a corner outfielder or 1st basemen with the same numbers, but the purpose of this piece is to determine the best pure right handed batter, not the best overall player.
2) The traditional statistics of HR, RBI, and batting average will all be factored into the rankings, and are pretty good statistical barometers, but I hope everybody realizes that we are approaching 2008 and those numbers are not by any means the best indicator of a hitter's contribution to creating runs. On-base Percentage (OBP) is the most important statistic in baseball - hands down, followed by Slugging Percentage. By conveniently combining the 2 statistics, we get a tremendously useful statistic called OPS or On-base Plus Slugging. So, was it great that Alex Rodriguez hit 156 RBI this year? Yes, he had a tremendous year. But, we must also factor in that he is the clean-up hitter in the best offense in baseball and has Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu hitting in front of him every game. So if Alex Rodriguez doesn't have at least 125 RBI in 2007 hitting for that team with those players in front of him, there is a serious problem. What I'm more impressed with is the fact that A-Rod had a league leading 1.067 OPS in a stadium not conducive to right handed hitters. And just a quick side note that has nothing to do with A-Rod, there many instances throughout the history of baseball where a player has hit 100+ RBI and actually had a negative offensive contribution to his team (email me for the list) and many, many instances where 3 and 4 spot hitters in the line-up have had seasons with less than 100 RBI and had made a historic offensive contribution to their team - see Mickey Mantle.
3) Other factors that will be considered are each hitter's average strikeouts per 162 games, average amount of times each hitters grounds into a double play (GIDP) per 162 games, past playoff performances, and my subjective human factor which you are welcome to agree or disagree with. I will also be using a stat called OPS+ which is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played.
4) IMPORTANT - This is not a rating of how good each player is based on their 2007 season. This analysis is to determine the best right handed hitter of the current era, based on each player's entire career.
So without further ado, the players, listed in alphabetical order, with my ranking of them at the very end of the column...
Guerrero, Vladimir
If you never looked at Vladimir Guerrero's numbers and only saw him the hand full of times he appears on national TV each year you would probably assume he has a relatively low batting average and that he strikes out a ton because he swings at EVERYTHING. The amazing thing is that the guy had a .325 career batting average and has never struck out 100 times in one season his entire career. In 2007 Vlad only struck out 62 times. To put that into context, Ryan Howard whiffed 199 times in 2007, more than 3 times as many times as Guerrero. The only blemish Guerrero has in his otherwise hall of fame career is his postseason resume, though he has only played in 16 career playoff games. Still, a .491 career postseason OPS is nothing short of stunning (in badness) for a player of his caliber.
Career BA - .325 (2 of 4)
Career OBP - .391 (3 of 4)
Career SLG% - .579 (3 of 4)
Career OPS - .970 (3 of 4)
Career OPS+ - 148 (3 of 4)
Most HR season - 44 (4 of 4)
Most RBI season - 131 (4 of 4)
3 highest OPS - 1.074, 1.010, 1.012
3 highest OBP - .426, .417, .410
3 highest SLG % - .664, .600, .598
3 highest BA - .345, .337, .336
3 highest HR - 44, 42, 39
3 highest RBI - 131, 126, 125
GIDP/162 games - 19 (3 of 4)
SO/162 games -74 (2 of 4)
Career Postseason 16 games - BA .183, OBP .258, SLG .233, 1HR, 7RBI, 6R
Pujols, Albert
When you look at Pujols' career numbers, even compared to Guerrero, Ramirez, and Rodriguez, it is quite amazing to see that he is tops amongst all of them in career BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. So now let me tell you why Albert's numbers are actually BETTER than they appear. Well, he's the only player of the 4 I'm comparing him against that currently plays in the NL, a league where teams score a considerably lower amount of runs per game, which believe it or not, actually curbs his offensive numbers a considerable amount. Next, Pujols has spent the majority of his career hitting at Busch field, a pretty good offensive park but not a great offensive park. Manny Ramirez on the other hand has played his career in 2 hitting paradises (Jacobs Field & especially Fenway Park) which provides a considerable amount of offensive inflation. Alex Rodriguez, though hitting in a pretty offensive neutral field in Yankee Stadium, was the beneficiary of the both the Kingdome in Seattle and stadium formerly known as The Ballpark in Arlington, 2 of the best home run and overall offensive stadiums in all of baseball. Pujols also has a postseason record amongst the best in MLB as seen by his whopping 1.022 playoff OPS. He also shares the record for most hits in a League Championship Series (14) and hit one of the most clutch, series saving, walk-off HRs in baseball history off Brad Lidge in the NLCS.
Career BA - .332 (1 of 4)
Career OBP - .420 (1 of 4)
Career SLG% - .620 (1 of 4)
Career OPS - 1.040 (1 of 4)
Career OPS+ - 167 (1 of 4)
Most HR season - 49 (2 of 4)
Most RBI season - 137 (3 of 4)
3 highest OPS - 1.106, 1.102, 1.072
3 highest OBP - .439, .431, .430
3 highest SLG % - .671, .667, .657
3 highest BA - .359, .331, .331
3 highest HR - 49, 46, 43
3 highest RBI - 137, 130, 127
GIDP/162 games - 21 (4 of 4)
SO/162 games - 67 (1 of 4)
Career Postseason 53 games - BA .323, OBP .429, SLG .593, 13HR, 35RBI, 39R
Ramirez, Manny
The reason that I listed the 3 highest category for each of the players was to give some indication of how dominate each player was during the peak of their respective careers. As you can see, Ramirez by far had the most amazing prime out of any of the 4 players discussed. Not only the premier RBI man of his generation, Ramirez's OBP, SLG, and OPS 3-years highs are out this planet. Ramirez is also second to only Lou Gehrig in career Grand Slams and now has more postseason HRs than any player in history. With that said, Ramirez's postseason numbers are lower than you would suspect. He has also been the beneficiary of playing in 2 of the best lineups in modern baseball history with the Indians and Red Sox and playing in the hitters havens that are Jacobs Field and Fenway Park. This is not to say Manny wouldn't be an elite hitter on any field or planet for that matter, I'm just saying his numbers are somewhat inflated.
Career OBP - .409 (2 of 4)
Career SLG% - .593 (2 of 4
Career OPS - 1.002 (2 of 4)
Career OPS+ - 154 (2 of 4)
Most HR season - 45 (3 of 4)
Most RBI season - 165 (1 of 4)
3 highest OPS - 1.154, 1.105, 1.097
3 highest OBP - .457, .450, .442
3 highest SLG - .697, .663, .647
3 highest BA - .351, .349, .333
3 highest HR - 45, 45, 44
3 highest RBI - 165, 145, 144
GIDP/162 games - 18 (2 of 4)
SO/162 games - 128 (3 of 4)
Career Postseason 91 games - BA .270, OBP .378, SLG .522, 24HR, 62RBI, 52R
Rodriguez, AlexThe premier home run hitter in baseball, Alex Rodriguez may very well hold a majority of the MLB career offensive statistics when his career is over. He is also the best all-around player of the group listed, with the ability to be a great middle infielder (2 gold gloves at SS). On any given season, A-Rod can be the best hitter in baseball, as evident in his outstanding 2007 campaign. With that said, Rodriguez is an interesting case. His 4 years as a Yankee have been marred by peaks and valleys. In 2004 A-Rod was a goat, 2005 he was the MVP, 2006 he was the goat again, and 2007 he was the (soon to be) MVP again. What separates A-Rod, in my opinion from Ramirez and Pujols is other pitcher's approach to him in the postseason. I don't weigh postseason success/failure or clutch performance much in my rankings of these 4 players because the sample size compared to their career is way too small. But I would be remiss in my analysis if I did not make the next statement. Alex Rodriguez does not scare opposing pitchers in big spots the way Manny and Pujols do AND he does NOT consistently hit top-notch pitching well. Take it from WFAN's Mike Francesa, a die-hard Yankee fan. This week on his radio show he was adamant about how Fausto Carmona challenged A-Rod in the postseason and blew him away on more than once occasion while Carmona was so afraid of Manny in the ALCS he essentially intentionally walked him with the bases loaded. The reason: A-Rod has a long swing, and a big-time pitcher with good stuff CAN and WILL strike him out when it matters. He is still among the greatest players of all time, but this fatal flaw will keep him out of the top spot in my rankings. That and the fact that he ranks 4th out of all the players I compare him to in career BA, OBP, SLG%, OPS, and OPS+. And he strikes out the most. Don't tell Scott Boras that!
Career BA - .306 (4 of 4)
Career OBP - .389 (4 of 4)
Career SLG% - .578 (4 of 4)
Career OPS - .967 (4 of 4)
Career OPS+ - 147 (4 of 4)
Most HR season - 57 (1 of 4)
Most RBI season - 156 (2 of 4)
3 highest OPS - 1.067, 1.045, 1.031
3 highest OBP - .422, .421, .420
3 highest SLG - .645, .631, .623
3 highest BA - .358, .321, .318
3 highest HR - 57, 54, 52,
3 highest RBI - 156, 142, 135
GIDP/162 games - 15 (1 of 4)
SO/162 games - 130 (4 of 4)
Career Postseason 39 G - BA .279, OBP .361, SLG .483, 13HR, 35RBI, 39R
FINAL RANKINGS - For the last time, this is the rankings for best right handed hitter. Defense and base-running are not factored in.
1. Pujols
2. Ramirez
3. Rodriguez
4. Guerrero
Players in this conversation with these four over the last 20 years... Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire (if clean), Mike Piazza
Please don't bring up the following players among the others... Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco
Player who may be in this conversation in the future... Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, David Wright
What to look for in the Who's On First? blog this week:- Wednesday - 2007 MLB awards
- Thursday - Week 9 NCAA Picks
- Friday - Week 8 NFL Picks
Your Comments/Questions/Suggestions on all blog are always welcome and appreciated.
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