NFL WEEK 7 PICKS

Week 7 - In the league where they play for pay...

Arizona @ Washington (-9)

Arizona (3-3) looks to stay atop the NFC West while Washington (3-2) would like to remain in that NFC East mix.

The negatives for Arizona:

1) Their third string QB is starting.
2) Their third string QB is coming off a ZERO TD, 3INT performance (31.8 passer rating) in week 6.
3) A cross-country trip to FedEx field against a top 5 rated defense.
4) The potential emotional X-factor from the medical diagnosis of Shawn Springs father.
5) They're the Arizona Cardinals.

The negatives for Washington:

1) They have already thrown away 2 games late in the 4th quarter (Week 3 vs NYG, Week 6 @ GB).
2) Joe Gibbs may be senile. Don't tell owner Daniel Snyder.
3) Arizona has a black WR with an Irish last name in Larry Fitzgerald. Black athletes with Irish last names have a history of dominance (Larry Fitzgerald WR, Tracy McGrady G/F, Darren McFadden RB, Antonio McDyess PF (before knee surgery), and of course Xavier McDaniel)

Look for Tim Rattay to conjure up just enough of his old San Francisco magic to cover the 9 points, though the Redskins still win comfortably. (Arizona +9)

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-9)

New Orleans recaptured some of their magic from 2006 in a season-saving win on Sunday night in the most hostile of opposing stadiums in QWEST FIELD. It was a night of firsts for the Saints. It was their first win of the season. It was the first time in 2007 Reggie Bush was impressive, showing that he does have the ability to run North/South with conviction. It was the first time the much-maligned Saints defense was able to consistently pressure the QB. And it was the first time this season that Drew Brees had more TD passes than interceptions.

So you'd figure that with the momentum from Sunday Night, the Saints playing in the Super Dome would easily dominate the abysmal Falcons, who were thoroughly beaten by the Giants on MNF. NOT SO FAST. The Seahawks loss to the Saints last week was more a product of the Seahawks completely not showing up in the first half than the Saints returning to their 2006 form. Let's remember that the Saints were shutout in the 2nd half even after looking invincible early on. The Falcons change at QB to Byron "Pass the Blunt to the" Leftwich is a huge upgrade over Joey Harrington. Plus he has something to prove. With the Saint's lack of a consistent pass rush and their propensity to allow big plays on defense, New Orleans ekes out a close game at home. (Atlanta +9)


Baltimore @ Buffalo (+3)

No home-field weather advantage for the Bills this week (69 degrees and sunny) which could have been their only hope with a rookie QB starting against the notorious Ravens Defense. I like what Trent Edwards has done to this point and I do think the Ravens defense has been somewhat of a paper tiger this year, BUT the Ravens are bullies and they'll feast upon a first year starting QB in only his 3rd NFL start (though he did have a week 6 bye to prepare). The battle of former Pac-10 QBs should be interesting (Boller - Cal, Edwards - Stanford) but the Ravens should thoroughly dominate this game. Do not be surprised if JP Losman sees some action after an Ed Reed safety blitz leaves Trent Edwards concussed. (Ravens -3)

Minnesota @ Dallas (-9.5)

The Dallas offense is too good for the Cowboys not to ultimately win this game. But if the Vikings can pound Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor enough to wear down the clock and keep the ball out of their own QB Tavaris Jackson's hands and the hands of the Cowboys, they could keep it close.

Interesting matchup #1: Adrian "Don't call me Scott" Peterson VS. Roy Williams

Interesting matchup #2: Marion "Don't call me Tiki" Barber III VS. The Vikings front-4.

(Vikings +9.5)


New England @ Miami (+16.5)
I don't care what anybody says. The most dominant WR of my lifetime when healthy and with a reason to play is Randy Moss. Of course those are two big If’s. Moss is the Shaquille O'Neal of the NFL. The defense has to completely change its game plan to stop him, allowing for single coverage to the other WRs and a more wide-open field to rush against. He really does not have to catch one ball to but his imprint on the game. If not for 2-3 Brady overthrows on deep balls last week and one dicey overturned challenged TD, Moss would have easily out dueled that popcorn loving Terrel Owens. Still, Randy "Don't call me Pete" Moss leads the NFL in receiving yards and TDs through 6 weeks of play.

Now that that's off my chest, New England should win easily against the Dolphins (0-6). But there are 4 reasons why New England will not cover the spread for the first time this year.

1) Miami beat New England last year 21-0.
2) Bill Belichick has no known vendetta against Cam Cameron like he did against Eric Mangini or Wade Phillips.
3) This is essentially the Dolphins Super Bowl. After this, its 9 weeks of battling with the Rams for the #1 pick in the 2008 Draft.
4) Wes Welker, Sammy Morris, and Junior Seau have a knack for befuddling the Pats. Oh wait, they're on New England now? Disregard that last sentence. The Dolphins, as everybody knows, are the only NFL franchise to go undefeated during the regular season (1972). Expect them to do everything in their power so that Bob Griese, Larry Csonka, and company can pop that champagne cork one more year. The 'phins beat the Bears in 1985 to derail their undefeated season, expect them to keep it somewhat close in Week 7. (Dolphins +16.5)

San Francisco @ New York Giants (-9.5)
Last week was supposed to be the "trap" game for the Giants. BUT, with such a dominate defensive line going up against a Falcons offensive line with 2 back-up tackles starting the game, Joey Harrington had no chance. Actually at this point, Joey Harrington would have no chance even if he was starting in a Pop Warner league game. San Francisco, coming off a week 6 bye, may have a few tricks up its sleeves. If Frank "Don't call me Al" Gore is able to expose a Giants front-4 that is susceptible to the run, and keep Trent Dilfer (GULP) out of obvious passing downs, they have a fighting chance at pulling off the proverbial "trap game". (49ers +9.5)

Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-2)
The much heralded Detroit offense only scored 3 points against the Redskins in the Week 5, then had a bye in Week 6. When you're calling card is an explosive offense you cannot under any circumstances lay an egg like that. That's like going to Peter Lugar's and they're only serving poultry. Naturally, we'd expect the offense to rebound somewhat playing at home and having an extra week to prepare. But still, in their last 3 games they have allowed 34, 27, and 56 points respectively. Jeff Garcia wins games and is yet to throw an INT this year. The BUCS revamped defense should slow the Lions down enough to win outright. (Buccaneers +2)

Tennessee @ Houston (+1)
Even if Vince "Don't call me Neil" Young, the new offensive X-factor in the NFL, does not play this week due to a quad injury, the Titans need-not worry. Tennessee has a stout defense led by Adam "Pacman" Jones. Expect big plays out of him both on defense and on special teams. JUST KIDDING, RELAX. Albert Haynesworth will be the deciding factor in stopping the Texans running game while Matt Schaub still is without his favorite weapon Andre Johnson. Factor in Ahman Green, Dunta Robinson, and kicker Kris Brown all battling injuries for the Texans, there is little reason to believe the Houston will win this game. (Titans -1)

Kansas City @ Oakland (-3)
Larry Johnson finally found his MoJo last week. Ehhh Maybe not. He had 119 yards rushing but just 3.8yds/carry with just 3.4yds/carry for the season. Still, Oakland has given up 145 rushing yards per game this season so Johnson should find room to run, which should open up play-action pass plays to Tony Gonzalez and rookie WR Dwayne Bowe. I still like Oakland to win this one in the Black Hole, but a rivalry game like this should go down to the wire. Oakland wins 17-16, but KC covers. (Chiefs +3)

New York Jets @ Cincinnati (-6)
As bad as the Bengals' defense is, I still can't see the Jets anemic, deliberate, methodical, predictable, offense scoring more than 21 points on the road. I can definitely see Carson Palmer, with the absence of anything resembling a Jets pass rush, lighting up the Jets for about 150 fantasy points. IF and ONLY IF Thomas "Don't call me Indiana" Jones can rush the ball effectively for 4 quarters, keeping the ball away from the Bengals, do the Jets have a chance at keeping this game close. And I think they will, mostly because the Bengals have 2 team water boys and a high school chess team president with asthma as their starting linebacking corps. Also, look to see how Jets rookie CB Darell Revis handles the Bengals' 2 standout WR when matched up against them on Defense. If the Jets lose, the race for the draft rights to Darren McFadden begins Week 8 vs. Buffalo (Jets +6)

St. Louis @ Seattle (-8.5)
Seattle is going to take its frustration out from back2back terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad, losses on the disgusting, hideous, hippy Rams. Shaun "Don't call me Grover Cleveland" Alexander, the most overrated RB in the world, will probably have a huge game just because the Rams pose no serious threat on defense. This game is in QWEST field, SOoOooOo the Rams really have no chance this week to get off the schnide. NO Chance. (Seahawks -8.5)

Chicago @ Philadelphia (-5)
Chicago, I know you're missing safety Mike Brown and I know Tank Johnson is no longer on your D-Line, but how can you let rookie Adrian Peterson do his best Gale Sayers impersonation at Soldier Field!?!? With that said, I don't know if I can trust the usually reliable Andy "I forgot how to" Reid in a big spot. He has the opportunity to show everybody he's still in control of this team @ home in Week 7 (Jets weren't a great barometer out of the bye). Pivotal game for both teams. (Eagles -5)

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+3.5) *Sunday Night*
Jay Cutler (see image at top of page) has to stop worrying about his physique so much and start worrying about his 4TD to 6INT rate this year. (Pittsburgh -3.5)

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+3) *Monday Night*
I can guarantee you that every single NFL analyst this weekend that is asked to comment about this game will inevitably say that Jacksonville is physical. I think that's the only thing America knows about this team. What they should know is that QB David Garrard has a 104.7 QB rating and is yet to throw an INT in 2007. They also have a great 2 back tandem in Jones-Drew and Taylor (5.7 & 4.9 yds/carry respectively). But the key matchup is going to be between Jaguars CBs Rashean Mathis FROM Bethune-Cookman (who would have thought) & Brian Williams and Colts WRs Marvin Harrison and/or Reggie Wayne. I like Indy to get healthy and win coming out of the bye week, but it will be close as always. (Jaguars +3)

LAST WEEK (5-6-2) - SEASON TOTAL (45-35-9)

NCAA THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

South Florida Bulls @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights {Pick: Rutgers +2)