NFL Week 14 Picks

On a personal level, it was a huge Saturday for me.

I enjoyed a cup of Starbucks coffee, when usually on the occasion where I stray away from my go-to brew of Dunkin' Donuts, for its stronger and more bitter tasting rival, I could hardly tolerate the difference. I look at this as a pivotal moment in my young coffee drinking career and would liken it to a karate student achieving a new belt. Its a general consensus that Starbucks is the strongest of any mainstream brew; the ability to enjoy their regular coffee with only a modest amount of cream and sugar demonstrates you have acquired a veteran tongue in the java drinking world. The day you can legitimately enjoy a cup of Starbucks coffee, served black, is the day you have achieved your "black belt."

But in the meantime, its a 20 ounce Dunkin' Donuts brew served with one sugar and half & half - with absolutely no desire to reach a new belt.

Week 14 - In the league where they play for pay...

Carolina @ Jacksonville

My rule of thumb is to always throw point spreads out the window in heated rivalry games - though I don't think these former expansion brethren have been considered rivals in quite some time, nor is this match up heated. But for this one week, with the Jaguars possibly looking ahead, and former Jaguars legend Tony Boselli acting a little too smug (about the Jags) on a recent radio appearance with Mike and the Mad Dog, I'll forget the fact that Vinny Testaverde is starting and Marcus Stroud is returning, remember that Carolina is much, much better on the road, and pretend that the Panthers are still the physical force they once were. In other words, I'm asking you to disillusion yourself into believing this is still a rivalry game and to conveniently forget, remember, and pretend, randomly, cherry-picked half-truths can somehow lead you to a successful pick against the spread. (Panthers +11)

Dallas @ Detroit

To remain consistent, in the game where there really is blood in the water between these two teams, I will throw the point spread out window and gladly accept 11.5 points on the Lions behalf. Plus, Dallas' secondary is more than suspect and if Kitna and those wideouts can get hot - it could be a long day for the Cowboys defense. I recognize the fact that the Cowboys have looked sharper than ANY NFL team in recent weeks. But I still refuse to believe Dallas is going to end up 15-1. The only thing that scares me is that Roy Williams is injured this week for the 'Boys. That should actually fortify their secondary against the pass. (Lions +11.5)

Miami @ Buffalo

I believe the 'phins will win ONE game this year, just not this week. Look for them to get of the schneid against the Ravens. For this week, I just can't see rookie John Beck leading an 0-12, warm weather team to a victory in a COLD weather city - in December. (Bills -7)

Oakland @ Green Bay

Da Raiders are 1-9 in their last 10 games played in December. JaMarcus Russell and company: Welcome to the Frozen Tundra that is Lambeau Field. (Packers -11)

San Diego @ Tennessee

The Chargers are playing to regain credibility.

The Titans are playing to to remain in that playoff mix.

Here's the deciding factor, other than the home field advantage and coaching advantage held by the Titans. Five times this season the Chargers have lost, with 4 losses against statistically solid run defenses - the Jags, Packers, Vikings, Patriots - whose average NFL rush defense ranking is 7th place. The Titans are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL (93.9 yards per game), and would be considerably higher if their anchor Albert Haynesworth hadn't missed considerable time the last 3 weeks. (Titans +1.5)

New York Giants @ Philadelphia

Even with New York banged up and on the road against one of their biggest rivals, I still don't think the Eagles are equally as good as the Giants- which Vegas seems to believe, by making them 3 point favorites at home. And if I was a Philly fan, I wouldn't like the fact that my team played back to back games down to the wire with nothing to show for it - that's never good for morale. Maybe McNabb will prove me wrong OR maybe he'll get sacked 12 times again. Which leads to the question, if Osi Umenyiora only gets 5 sacks this week against the Eagles, do we have to say that the Eagles improved their pass protection? (Giants +3)

St. Louis @ Cincinnati

I know the Rams are 3-9. I know the Rams are starting a 3rd string quarterback. But last time I checked, 4-8 is only one game better than 3-9 and should not equate to a team being a 10 point favorite under any circumstances. (Rams +10)

Arizona @ Seattle

Cardinals:

MINUS Larry Fitzgerald
MINUS Anquan Boldin
PLUS Qwest Field
PLUS December

Equals - An Unmitigated Disaster (Seahawks -7)

Minnesota @ San Francisco

Minnesota being favored by 9.5 on the road has quickly become the outrage of the century for the gambling public and an automatic pick of 49ers +9.5. This is my impersonation of a contrarian. (Vikings -9.5)

Pittsburgh @ New England

The Case for the Patriots:

1. Undefeated.
   
   
2. Home.
   
   
3. They have owned the Steelers for a decade.
   
   
4. Belichick versus a rookie coach.
   
   
5. Pittsburgh has been a terrible road team this year.

The Case for the Steelers:

1. Their physical brand of football is better suited for freezing conditions.
   
   
2. New England is coming off a short week and also were given a day off during a regularly scheduled practice day.
   
   
3. New England has struggled defensively in consecutive weeks.
   
   
4. With each victory, the laws of probability are slowly tipping in favor of the Patriot opponents.
   
   
5. The Steelers were the team to end the Patriots 21-game winning streak.

If I had to pull a lever, push a button, or had a gun to my head, I'd say the Patriots win a close one. (Steelers +10.5)

Cleveland @ New York Jets

In a game where the consensus believes the outcome will be very close, I bring in the X-Factor to the table that makes it even tighter. Eric Mangini and "Where art though my" Romeo Crennel are very close friends and former colleagues on the New England coaching staff. It seems that as of late, the pupil has had the advantage over the teacher - as exhibited by Sean Payton OVER Parcells last year, Mangini OVER Belichick last year, and Ken Whisenhunt OVER the Steelers this year. (Jets +3)

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Like Carolina @ Jacksonville, another should-be rivalry game - because the Colts used to play in Baltimore -that currently isn't a rivalry game. Ever so quietly, Indianapolis is hitting it's stride as the playoffs approach. I can see it being hard for Baltimore to get the necessary emotional level back up after coming so close with nothing to showing to for it against the Patriots. Don't underestimate the impact of a short week off a brutal, hard fought loss either. Did the Ravens ever think they'd have a tougher loss to swallow than the one they had taken away from them against the Browns?? (Colts -10)

Strangely Apathetic

Kansas City (+7) @ Denver

Tampa Bay (-3) @ Houston

Justifiably Apathetic

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Atlanta

Last Week (5-11) - Season Total (95-84-10)